Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2007/08/31
[Author Prev] [Author Next] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Author Index] [Topic Index] [Home] [Search]yes, z80, cp/m and wordstar!! On 8/31/07, Lawrence Zeitlin <lrzeitlin@optonline.net> wrote: > > On Aug 31, 2007, at 6:20 PM, Henning wrote: > > > Gee, will there ever be a Nikon D4? Might there possibly be a Canon > > 50D? What a stretch for someone in those companys to admit to > > something like that. And of course, since there will be a D4, there's > > absolutely no point in buying a D3 when it becomes available in > > December. > > > > > > Maybe there'll be a Toyota Camry in 2012 that will be better than the > > current one. Maybe if a Toyota spokesman admitted as much sales of > > the current model might drop to zero. > > Henning, > > You are probably too young to remember the history of the Osborne 1 > portable computer. The 1981 Osborne was the first "laptop" computer. > It was about the size of a portable typewriter, weighed 20 pounds, > with a screen the size of a playing card, and a handle to carry it > around. But, if you remembered to bring your battery pack with you, > it was the first computer you could use without plugging in. It sold > like hotcakes. Businessmen bought Osbornes because they could take > them home or to a hotel room. It was an excellent computer, on a par > with the best contemporary desktop computers. But, there were a lot > of complaints. Too heavy, too big, unreliable, the screen was too > small to read easily, the screen aspect ratio was wrong, etc. Osborne > thought he could quiet the complaints by announcing that the soon to > be introduced Osborne 2 would be smaller, lighter, have a bigger > screen, and would be better in every way. Sales of the Osborne 1 > stopped immediately. Who would spend big bucks, $2000 in 1981 - about > equivalent to $5000 today, for a computer that would be obsolete in a > very short time. For most people a computer is not an absolute > necessity. The purchase can be deferred if a better option will be > available soon. Osborne Computer, a company about the size of Leica, > couldn't handle the dry up of cash flow and went under. The company > stayed afloat for a few years as a publisher of computer oriented > technical books but made no more computers. > > Most of today's high tech companies hold news of future product > introductions top secret. Apple even sues rumor mongers and has won > injunctions against web sites and bloggers who claim to have advance > news. It learned the Osborne lesson well. Auto companies do give > advanced information about upcoming models but they simultaneously > offer dramatic price reductions on older models to clear showrooms of > stock before the new cars arrive. Sure there will be a better Toyota > in 2012 but you will have to wait five years to get it. If you need > transportation, either drive your old car, buy a new car and trade it > in for a 2012 Toyota, or take a lot of cabs. > > The Leica analogy is similar, but not identical, to the Osborne case. > We have a small company producing a specialized camera for a limited > market. According to the reports of actual users, the M8 has > unsurpassed image quality but fails to fully satisfy the original > expectations of the Leica faithful. It is a bit too large, a bit > unreliable, doesn't have a full frame sensor, requires filters on > lenses, needs lens coding for best results, and simply sounds wrong. > Now suppose that a Leica spokesman makes a cryptic statement that > another Leica, say the M9, may or may not be in the works. But if it > is in the works it may (or may not) satisfy the demand for a full > frame sensor and have 20% more pixels to boot. What do you think will > happen to marginal sales of the original camera? Sure, Leica using > professionals may still buy the M8. They will probably get full use > out of the camera and can amotize their investment over thousands of > pictures. But the average Leica using photographer, semi pro or > advanced amateur, could easily wait a few months for the new model. > The M8 has been on the market for about a year. In the electronics > industry a change is about due. Remember Leica does not make most of > the camera's electronic bits. They buy them from outside suppliers. > The photoelectronic industry moves at a rapid rate and Leica's > technology may be yesterday's news. In all liklihood a M9 is indeed > in the works and the Leica spokesman may have been floating a trial > balloon. A "new and better" M9 might free Leica of the M8 albatross. > I just hope the announcement doesn't kill the company. Leica made a > profit last year roughly equivalent to that of a medium sized pub. > They need that cash to keep coming. Oh well, they can always license > the name to Panasonic and concentrate on 4/3s cameras. > > And Henning, I never implied the M8 early adopters were misguided > zealots. I admire the hope and courage of all of you. And frankly I > also admire the images you have posted on the LUG. But most Luggers > who bought the M8 were already superb photographers. In the hands of > a duffer like myself it may be worth giving up a little image quality > for ease of use and convenience as well as the ability to get full > frame images from my existing lenses. That way I don't have to buy > new optics to shoot wide angle photos. Hell, even the familiar Leica > M body shape isn't important. I really love my CL. Now if the > hypothetical M9 were a full frame camera the size of the CL (but with > a longer rangefinder base) I would buy it in an instant. > > Leica - are you ready to take my order? And have a Happy LABOUR Day! > > Larry Z > > _______________________________________________ > Leica Users Group. > See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information > -- ------------------------------------- regards, mehrdad