[Leica] Re: M9

[lrzeitlin at optonline.net (Lawrence Zeitlin)]

On Aug 31, 2007, at 6:20 PM, Henning wrote:

> Gee, will there ever be a Nikon D4? Might there possibly be a Canon
> 50D? What a stretch for someone in those companys to admit to
> something like that. And of course, since there will be a D4, there's
> absolutely no point in buying a D3 when it becomes available in
> December.
>
>
> Maybe there'll be a Toyota Camry in 2012 that will be better than the
> current one. Maybe if a Toyota spokesman admitted as much sales of
> the current model might drop to zero.

Henning,

You are probably too young to remember the history of the Osborne 1  
portable computer.  The 1981 Osborne was the first "laptop" computer.  
It was about the size of a portable typewriter, weighed 20 pounds,  
with a screen the size of a playing card, and a handle to carry it  
around. But, if you remembered to bring your battery pack with you,  
it was the first computer you could use without plugging in. It sold  
like hotcakes. Businessmen bought Osbornes because they could take  
them home or to a hotel room. It was an excellent computer, on a par  
with the best contemporary desktop computers. But, there were a lot  
of complaints. Too heavy, too big, unreliable, the screen was too  
small to read easily, the screen aspect ratio was wrong, etc. Osborne  
thought he could quiet the complaints by announcing that the soon to  
be introduced Osborne 2 would be smaller, lighter, have a bigger  
screen, and would be better in every way. Sales of the Osborne 1  
stopped immediately. Who would spend big bucks, $2000 in 1981 - about  
equivalent to $5000 today, for a computer that would be obsolete in a  
very short time. For most people a computer is not an absolute  
necessity. The purchase can be deferred if a better option will be  
available soon. Osborne Computer, a company about the size of Leica,  
couldn't handle the dry up of cash flow and went under. The company  
stayed afloat for a few years as a publisher of computer oriented  
technical books but made no more computers.

Most of today's high tech companies hold news of future product  
introductions top secret. Apple even sues rumor mongers and has won  
injunctions against web sites and bloggers who claim to have advance  
news. It learned the Osborne lesson well. Auto companies do give  
advanced information about upcoming models but they simultaneously  
offer dramatic price reductions on older models to clear showrooms of  
stock before the new cars arrive. Sure there will be a better Toyota  
in 2012 but you will have to wait five years to get it. If you need  
transportation, either drive your old car, buy a new car and trade it  
in for a 2012 Toyota, or take a lot of cabs.

The Leica analogy is similar, but not identical, to the Osborne case.  
We have a small company producing a specialized camera for a limited  
market. According to the reports of actual users, the M8 has  
unsurpassed image quality but fails to fully satisfy the original  
expectations of the Leica faithful. It is a bit too large, a bit  
unreliable, doesn't have a full frame sensor, requires filters on  
lenses, needs lens coding for best results, and simply sounds wrong.  
Now suppose that a Leica spokesman makes a cryptic statement that  
another Leica, say the M9, may or may not be in the works. But if it  
is in the works it may (or may not) satisfy the demand for a full  
frame sensor and have 20% more pixels to boot. What do you think will  
happen to marginal sales of the original camera? Sure, Leica using  
professionals may still buy the M8. They will probably get full use  
out of the camera and can amotize their investment over thousands of  
pictures. But the average Leica using photographer, semi pro or  
advanced amateur, could easily wait a few months for the new model.  
The M8 has been on the market for about a year. In the electronics  
industry a change is about due. Remember Leica does not make most of  
the camera's electronic bits. They buy them from outside suppliers.  
The photoelectronic industry moves at a rapid rate and Leica's  
technology may be yesterday's news. In all liklihood a M9 is indeed  
in the works and the Leica spokesman may have been floating a trial  
balloon. A "new and better" M9 might free Leica of the M8 albatross.   
I just hope the announcement doesn't kill the company. Leica made a  
profit last year roughly equivalent to that of a medium sized pub.  
They need that cash to keep coming. Oh well, they can always license  
the name to Panasonic and concentrate on 4/3s cameras.

And Henning, I never implied the M8 early adopters were misguided  
zealots. I admire the hope and courage of all of you. And frankly I  
also admire the images you have posted on the LUG. But most Luggers  
who bought the M8 were already superb photographers. In the hands of  
a duffer like myself it may be worth giving up a little image quality  
for ease of use and convenience as well as the ability to get full  
frame images from my existing lenses. That way I don't have to buy  
new optics to shoot wide angle photos. Hell, even the familiar Leica  
M body shape isn't important. I really love my CL. Now if the  
hypothetical M9 were a full frame camera the size of the CL (but with  
a longer rangefinder base) I would buy it in an instant.

Leica - are you ready to take my order? And have a Happy LABOUR Day!

Larry Z