Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2009/06/21

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Subject: [Leica] Are we no longer wanted?
From: jayanand at gmail.com (Jayanand Govindaraj)
Date: Sun, 21 Jun 2009 23:27:39 +0530
References: <4A3D60AB.6020607@gmx.de> <3cad89990906201939s2db48839uc107b2e31a40a5f5@mail.gmail.com> <36172e5a0906202028h6e2ce23bybd3fc25e1ed2a8d2@mail.gmail.com> <3cad89990906202157h1d77be61oe54741b935f4c4c9@mail.gmail.com> <36172e5a0906202232m10836d39p534aa0e533459832@mail.gmail.com>

Geoff,
Should we only cheer Leica on a Leica list? Better to open a Discussion
Forum on DP Review and feel good about it.

I understand companies, how they are run, and what makes them tick, its all
I have studied all my working life (35 years). I am judging Leica without
recourse to the sort of detailed information I would normally look at, and
without a single look at the financial statements, and without ever meeting
the management, but here goes. If anyone wants to rebut my analysis, please
feel free to do so.

Leica has been a badly managed company (again, I am talking management here,
not products) for some time, that I have no doubt - it was the dominant
force (in technology as well as volumes) in photography till the Nikon F
came out, for all of 30 years since the nascent years for small format
photography in the late 1920s. Now their market share should be I guess
under 1% of total camera sales, and can be comfortably rounded off to zero.
Leica has been the General Motors of the photography hardware industry.
Since 1959 they have comfortably missed every new development in their
industry by some distance, tried to catch up, failed and gone to near
bankruptcy; and then someone or the other gets besotted by the brand
goodwill and pumps some more money in. I cant see how much further this
cycle can go on without the company reinventing itself and its products in
some other way, or selling itself off. You must understand the dynamics of
business - you can have the greatest product since sliced bread - but if you
cant sell it, its worth zilch. Again, just because someone with a German
name gives a talk, does not mean that he is a good manager, or that he has a
credible plan and vision - only time will tell. The only thing that I know
for certain from my experience is company insiders will only divulge
information they want you to know, and will more often than not quite
delibrately withold critical information in order to mislead you. I never
ever believe what these guys tell me in entirety without cross checking what
I have been told. For one method on how to do so, let me recommend one of
the greatest books written on investment, Philip Fisher's "Common Stocks,
Uncommon Profits".

The recent announcements on the rationalisation of lines is typical of a
company running out of cash. Their core market for the M line should be
contracting at this point of time, the R line is dead and gone and the S
line is still some time away. The fundamental requirement right now is to
augment cash flow, and by inference profits, so investments can continue in
what is now an extremely competitive marketplace for digital imaging, and at
all levels. Leica's intellectual property and goodwill is primarily in two
areas - the M system, and its lenses, both the M and R lines. In order to
survive, it needs to monetise this knowhow better. So IMHO they have to do
two things:

1. Introduce a starter Digital M kit with an EVF at a relatively affordable
price (plastic is fine, micro 4/3 is fine!) to draw customers into the
system - and please, not a rebadged Lumix body at twice the price for the
privilege of having a red dot! I say EVF because I presume a major part of
the cost of M bodies is the rangefinder. This will bring in some customers
who might otherwise buy a Lumix G1 or the new Olympus. Note that Panasonic
themselves are offering company branded M and R lens adaptors, so there is a
market here.

2. Like Zeiss, start issuing their legendary, nonpareil lenses in
Canon/Nikon/M42 mounts. As the S series is going to be the centrepiece from
now on, issuing the R lenses in these mounts will just mean monetising a
dead horse, with huge margins (no development/R&D costs to amortise). All
they have to do is an in house Leitax operation on all existing stocks of R
lenses to start with. I can definitely see lenses like the 100mm
APO-Macro-Elmarit selling very well to Canon or Nikon users, because manual
focus is what you need for macro. Further manufacture could be sub
contracted to someone like Cosina, with the QC in Leica's hands, in order to
control costs.

Please feel free to point out any fallacies in my thinking or anything I
might have missed out.

Again, I am making it clear that I am taking potshots at the way Leica has
been managed as a company, and not at the products!

Cheers
Jayanand





On Sun, Jun 21, 2009 at 11:02 AM, Geoff Hopkinson <hopsternew at 
gmail.com>wrote:

> Jayanand I feel defensive about Leica and the M8 because I am enthusiastic
> about both and frequently see your posts and approach to both as negative.
> I can never understand that on a Leica list. Sorry, I just don't get it.
> Shooting and socialising with more than a hundred Leica enthusiasts over a
> couple of days in Germany I saw a lot of keen photographers enjoying their
> equipment.  No investment bankers although there was a least one dentist
> ;-)
> I met a number of Leica staff from division heads and down and they were
> without exception extraordinarily helpful and friendly. Looking at their
> operation, people and facilities up close you can appreciate more just why
> the lenses cost so much, for example. As you know I think they are worth
> it. I want them to be around into the future too. I listened to Stefan
> Daniel provide much candid insight about the state of business for Leica,
> some of which I shared here. Leica needs the support of users.
> When you are as enthusiastic and committed as I am sometimes the constant
> criticism or armchair CEO advice on the web forums gets frustrating.
>
> Never mind I'll say no more and we'll continue to continue to have polar
> opposite but amicable views on Leica and Adobe and Nikon and no doubt much
> else besides ;-)
> .
> 2009/6/21 Jayanand Govindaraj <jayanand at gmail.com>
>
> > Geoff,
> > It is not some, but most of the sales have gone to folks who would use an
> > M8
> > as a fashion accessory. The real users buy most of their Leica kit used,
> > which is of no use to Leica, the company. The M8 in its early days was an
> > exception, but recently most of the messages on this list on this subject
> > are about buying it used, or about alternatives from Panasonic and
> Olympus.
> > The fact is that Leica is marketing into a certain segment of society
> which
> > is in difficulty now because of the economic crisis, so the S2 targeted
> at
> > professionals may be a good idea after all. Much better than bringing out
> a
> > R10 which will sell in miniscule numbers. At least the numbers that the
> S2
> > will sell at would bring in much larger margins. Whatever we may think,
> > volumes do count! The D5000 is far more important than the D3x for Nikon
> > from a company health and profitability point of view. I also think that
> > Leica have screwed up big time by not bringing in a less expensive M
> > camera,
> > maybe with an EVF, and not following Zeiss' example of offering their
> > legendary lenses in Nikon/Canon/M42 mounts. If the M is not central to
> > their
> > future, as it seems right now, they might as well maximise the revenue
> from
> > their main intellectual property, i.e. the lens designs for the M and R
> > lines. All in all, Leica seems to be a confused company right now, and
> not
> > a
> > very well managed one at that. Pity.
> >
> > I do not know why calling an item a rich man's plaything has such
> negative
> > connotations. It certainly does not reflect on the quality of the item,
> or
> > the user. I have expensive watches, use only bespoke clothing, etc. etc.
> > which are all extravagances, and I am unapologetic about it. I bought a
> > Nikkor 200-400 lens, which for an amateur is an extravagance, too. I
> don't
> > drive expensive cars because that is not my scene, and I get no pleasure
> > from it.   Why don't you just enjoy the M8 instead of getting defensive
> > about it every time? Accept it in your mind that it is your indulgence,
> and
> > that is it!
> >
> > I am debating between the M8 and G1 because, for me, it would be very
> much
> > a
> > secondary system to my Nikon kit and spending a load of cash into a body
> > that will not be used very much seems a waste - better buy a D700
> instead.
> > I
> > was all prepared to buy a M9 when it came out, with all issues sorted out
> > (like the necessity of using an IR filter, which in hot, humid, dusty
> > climates like ours is a PITA), but now it looks as if it might not come
> for
> > quite some time, if at all. Hence the quandary.
> >
> > Cheers
> > Jayanand
> >
> >
> > On Sun, Jun 21, 2009 at 8:58 AM, Geoff Hopkinson <hopsternew at gmail.com
> > >wrote:
> >
> > > Some folks with lots of spare funds might buy Leica because it is
> stylish
> > > or
> > > elegant or higher status or whatever. Good for them. It helps Leica
> which
> > > helps other users too. Who knows, some of your investment bankers may
> > shoot
> > > with their new cameras and get addicted.
> > > Keen enthusiasts will find the money or build their outfits as they can
> > and
> > > choose Leica for the reasons we choose Leica.
> > >  Point of interest. The Summilux 50 ASPH. outsells the much cheaper and
> > > still by all accounts excellent Summarit 50  by 2:1
> > > Why would that be?
> > >
> > > 2009/6/21 Jayanand Govindaraj <jayanand at gmail.com>
> > >
> > > > Douglas,
> > > > This has been evident for years now. They have been targeting rich
> > > > investment bankers and their ilk, not you and me. It became quite
> > obvious
> > > > with the M8 advertising campaign, which was far more prominent in the
> > > > GQ/Esquire type magazines rather than hardcore photography magazines.
> > It
> > > > was
> > > > also heavily featured in the "fashion tech" pages (alongside the
> > > Ipod,etc)
> > > > of those magazines. But if truth be told, the bankers would buy new,
> > and
> > > we
> > > > would buy second hand...
> > > > Cheers
> > > > Jayanand
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > On Sun, Jun 21, 2009 at 3:50 AM, Douglas Sharp <douglas.sharp at 
> > > > gmx.de
> >
> > > > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > > I was looking up things Leica on the Web recently and noticed the
> > > number
> > > > of
> > > > > hits that turn up for Leica on "lifestyle" pages.
> > > > >
> > > > > It didn't seem to work after their flutter with Hermes, but now
> they
> > > seem
> > > > > to have got their products prominently "placed", or even
> "positioned"
> > > (in
> > > > > the words of the world of marketing)
> > > > >
> > > > > No more mention of precision optics and superb engineering - it's
> all
> > > > > turned into up-market hype about the special finish, how they look
> > and
> > > if
> > > > > they have a perfectly matching bag... everything in black, white,
> > olive
> > > > > green, titanium and silver seems to be the name of the game.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > The opening of the new Leica Shop in Moscow's uppest-market
> > residential
> > > > and
> > > > > shopping quarter at the end of May seems to be following the same
> > > trend.
> > > > I
> > > > > wouldn't be surprised to find cameras in gold and royal blue with a
> > > > double
> > > > > eagle or in Faberge enamel soon, packed in a matching Faberge
> easter
> > > egg.
> > > > >
> > > > > Then Ferrari red, Bugatti blue, Mercedes silver and, and,
> > and.........
> > > > >
> > > > > The higher prices are obviously already a unique and exclusive
> > selling
> > > > > point for people who want to be seen with a Leica as a lifestyle
> > > > accessory.
> > > > >
> > > > > The M8 Safari is almost sold out, the White Edition has gone
> > > completely,
> > > > a
> > > > > D-Lux 4 Titan and a D-Lux 4 Safari are selling well.
> > > > >
> > > > > This is all very good for Leica, but I think it bodes ill for the
> > > former
> > > > > target group to which we all most probably belong.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Cheers
> > > > > Douglas
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > > Leica Users Group.
> > > > > See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more
> information
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > Leica Users Group.
> > > > See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --
> > > Cheers
> > > Geoff
> > > 'Life's not B&W, except at both ends'
> > > http://gallery.leica-users.org/v/gh/
> > > http://www.pbase.com/hoppyman
> > >
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > Leica Users Group.
> > > See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information
> > >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Leica Users Group.
> > See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information
> >
>
>
>
> --
> Cheers
> Geoff
> 'Life's not B&W, except at both ends'
> http://gallery.leica-users.org/v/gh/
> http://www.pbase.com/hoppyman
>
> _______________________________________________
> Leica Users Group.
> See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information
>


Replies: Reply from kididdoc at cox.net (Steve Barbour) ([Leica] Are we no longer wanted?)
In reply to: Message from douglas.sharp at gmx.de (Douglas Sharp) ([Leica] Are we no longer wanted?)
Message from jayanand at gmail.com (Jayanand Govindaraj) ([Leica] Are we no longer wanted?)
Message from hopsternew at gmail.com (Geoff Hopkinson) ([Leica] Are we no longer wanted?)
Message from jayanand at gmail.com (Jayanand Govindaraj) ([Leica] Are we no longer wanted?)
Message from hopsternew at gmail.com (Geoff Hopkinson) ([Leica] Are we no longer wanted?)