[Leica] Hexar RF...Good News...Bad News

[Bill Erfurth <m6rf@yahoo.com>]

So, this guy walks into Herr Cohn's office and says,
"Herr Cohn, I have bad news for you".

Herr Cohn looks at him and says, "So, what's new"?
............................................

Without going into detail, the introduction of the
Hexar RF is going to have a dramatic impact on Leica
Camera.

First of all, Leica no longer has "the only game in
town".  For the first time in maybe 20 years,
consumers now will have a choice of quality
rangefinder cameras. This is going to significantly
effect sales.  On the bright side, it will hopefully
cause a change in attitude within the Leica
organization.

Second, the Hexar is sold as a kit with one body and
three lenses.  Now when Joe Photographer buys one of
these kits, in many cases Joe will sell off the Konica
lenses on e-bay and use the Leica lenses that he
already has.  This will put a glut of inexpensive
28mm, 50mm, and 90mm lenses in the market place, and
thus cut into Leica's lens sales of these products. 
On the Bright side, this will bring down the price of
all Leica compatible lenses in the secondary market.

Third, if Joe Photographer likes his new Hexar, he
will in many cases sell off his Leica M6 (or what
ever) thus adding a lot of good used Leica's to the
marketplace.  Here again this will negatively effect
Leica's M body sales.  On the Bright side, this will
lower the price of most M cameras because of the
increased supply.

Now, if the rumored report from the British Photo
magazine about a Nikon rangefinder is correct (I'm
betting that it is) Leica could easily end up being
third in a three man race.

Is Leica, as we know it,  doomed?  Well, maybe...maybe
not.  It all depends on Herr Cohn's leadership.

My background was in the electronic parts business
(transistors, IC's, resistors, etc).  As such, I hung
around with the guys in Silly-Cone-Valley, where 12 to
15 hour days, six day weeks, and cold pizza were the
norm.  I know countless people who started with
nothing, worked their BUNNS off to MAKE THINGS HAPPEN,
and became very wealthy because of it.

That is exactly what Herr Cohn is going to have to do,
MAKE THINGS HAPPEN.  And, mark my words, he can't do
it by himself.  He needs to bring in someone who can
produce SHORT TERM RESULTS in sales, marketing and
product development.  Money (in the form of increased
sales) talks, and that's what the people in the
investment community want to hear in order to give
Leica's stock the boost that it needs.  

In reality, this is probably Herr Cohns last chance to
turn this thing around.  The longer he waits, the
harder it is to do...and make no mistake about it,
there is a point of no return.  The best indicator of
how well Herr Cohn is doing will be the price of
Leica's stock.  If the stock continues to fall...the
fat lady will sing...guaranteed.

As much as I have followed this, and as interested as
I am in Leica, I have no idea of which way it will go.


Regards,

Bill Erfurth
m6rf@yahoo.com





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