[Leica] Closed Parc - Don

Tue May 12 13:54:32 PDT 2020

HI, Phillipe.  My comments about US parks was more to reinforce the
stupidity of some government officials.  My daughter had reservations for a
camping spot in a Washington State park.  Reservations mean you don't get
in the park without one.  Limited number of folks in the huge park.  Yet
her reservation was cancelled, the park rangers couldn't cruise around the
park ensuring that the rules were followed?  What the F&%k are the state
employees doing with nobody allowed in the park.  Moving the conversation
to Spain, once the stay in your home orders had been modified so different
age groups could go outside at different times with restrictions the
gendarmes could not keep a watch on the park to ensure that the rules were
followed?  If we are going to have limited stay at home restrictions then
ensuring the sanity of the public is of great importance to all involved.
Letting people within reason enjoy a park helps to keep the populations
sanity: if the population can't follow the rules then you close the park or
whatever public space is in question with the explanation that some could
not keep the rest of the citizens safe.

The various countries of course are free to set whatever policies that make
sense for them.  Scenario 1 is that we have various forms of lockdowns
until 50% or more of the population is vaccinated whenever a vaccine is
created.  Managing the sanity of the citizens will be a careful balancing
of limited freedoms carefully managed so that exposure to the virus is as
low as possible.  In this scenario government finances are stretched to the
limit as there is no income coming in.  Some organizations close forever as
resources evaporate(workforce that choose not to be locked up, commitments
for inputs that go to who can actually purchase the inputs and lock up said
resources).

Scenario 2 is to start to open up your society as much as possible watching
hospital resources carefully: the goal is to get as many people with
antibodies as possible without overloading the medical resources
available.  Here you will shut things down progressively if your medical
resources begin to overload.  In this scenario deaths may increase
dramatically if wrong calls are made.

Scenario 3 is the German model that allowed companies to remain open with
strict monitoring of worker conditions to limit the spread of the virus.
Social distancing is strongly enforced.  This is a middle path with
possibly a middle mortality rate but incomes to the government are less
affected.

Scenario 4 is large testing with police enforcement of quarantine as people
are found to be infected.  This only works in small population countries
with a strong social bond that trusts/obey authority.  It also only works
when the infection is just starting and the infected are a relatively small
number.  This would never work in Paris or NYC currently as too many are
infected to trace the infections.

Scenario 5 is the Swedish model.  Essentially a variation on the German
model with more choice by the citizens.  Currently a higher mortality rate
than the nearest neighbors but maybe smarter if a vaccine is not developed
in 6-18 months.

In the US we are essentially trying 1 and 2 simultaneously.  States like
Georgia, Florida, Texas, Colorado, S. Dakota are working on #2.  NY,
Washington State, Michigan, Pennsylvania appear to be trying #1.  The next
few weeks will be enlightening.

On Tue, May 12, 2020 at 2:43 PM Philippe via LUG <lug at leica-users.org>
wrote:

> A tragedy yes.
>
> Now, the rest of your reasonings is open to questions. Different places,
> cultures, etc. Lluis's downtown parc is not a National Park in the US, etc.
>
> Same virus though. Lethal for humans.
>
> And all the more so if you drink bleach instead of cerveça ...
>
>
> Amities
>
> Philippe
>
>
>
> > Le 12 mai 2020 à 21:33, Don Dory via LUG <lug at leica-users.org> a écrit :
> >
> > That is a tragedy.  Sunlight and fresh air kill the virus.  People just
> > need to keep their distance and/or wear a mask.  Several of our states
> have
> > closed their state parks for fear that people won't follow the rules.  If
> > someone won't follow the rules in 10,000 hectares of forest they won't
> > follow them walking down the street.
> >
> > On Tue, May 12, 2020 at 1:57 PM Lluis Ripoll via LUG <
> lug at leica-users.org>
> > wrote:
> >
> >> A Parc in confinement….
> >> <
> >>
> http://gallery.leica-users.org/v/luisrq/Abstracts/20200512_L1020708.jpg.html
> >>>
> >>
> >> Leica Monochrom (CCCD), Noctilux F1.0
> >>
> >> Thanks for looking, your c&c are welcome
> >>
> >> Saludos cordiales
> >> Lluis
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> _______________________________________________
> >> Leica Users Group.
> >> See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Don
> > don.dory at gmail.com
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Leica Users Group.
> > See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Leica Users Group.
> See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information

-- 
Don
don.dory at gmail.com