[Leica] Whereas I found this article terrifying

Sun Mar 22 11:09:26 PDT 2020

Let’s not be too smug. I am keeping to the restrictions, I am not overweight, and I quit smoking 11 years ago. But my immune system is weakened by rheumatoid arthritis and the treatment I get for it. So the calculus is somewhat different for me.

Cheers,
Nathan

Nathan Wajsman

Alicante, Spain
http://www.frozenlight.eu <http://www.frozenlight.eu/>
http:// <http://www.greatpix.eu/>www.greatpix.eu
PICTURE OF THE WEEK: http://www.fotocycle.dk/paws <http://www.fotocycle.dk/paws>Blog: http://nathansmusings.wordpress.com/ <http://nathansmusings.wordpress.com/>

Cycling: http://www.crazyguyonabike.com/belgiangator <http://www.crazyguyonabike.com/belgiangator>

YNWA

"I’m not arguing, I’m just explaining why I’m right"

> On 22 Mar 2020, at 16:23, Jayanand Govindaraj via LUG <lug at leica-users.org> wrote:
> 
> As far as I know, there has been no death between the ages of 0-10 years
> worldwide, and the death rate is negligible between the ages of 10-19. I
> suggest you ingest the math of probability - in layman's terms, the chances
> of death for an individual are not impossible, but improbable, as it is
> with most pandemics/epidemics. The same probabilities probably are valid
> for being run over by a car when crossing the road, or dying in an air
> crash. Life, however, goes on....
> 
> The large majority of those for whom the disease proves fatal are over 75
> years - I do not know about Europe, but the vast majority of Asians,
> especially Chinese, in that age bracket are smokers, and it not surprising
> that they get well and truly whacked by a virulent respiratory ailment. The
> west, however, might face another threat altogether, not due to smoking,
> but obesity, and hence might be more dangerous for younger age brackets. We
> will have to wait and see.
> 
> Cheers
> Jayanand
> 
> On Sun, Mar 22, 2020 at 8:34 PM Jean-Michel Mertz via LUG <
> lug at leica-users.org> wrote:
> 
>> For the time being, I'd remain very wary about interpreting current
>> statistics. Where I live - same part of France as Philippe though much
>> closer to the infection hotbed - the situation varies from town to town,
>> from village to village. The evangelical gathering already mentioned
>> (mid-Feb, Mulhouse, thirty miles from where I live) was at the start of
>> France's first coronavirus cluster zone: thousands of people attended, got
>> the virus and then spread it throughout France, Europe and even as far as
>> South America. Today hospitals in my area cannot cope anymore with the
>> number of people in need of ICU beds and ventilators and hard choices have
>> already to be made. Some relief is expected when the Army field hospital is
>> up - tomorrow they say. But that's about 30 beds. A number of patients are
>> flown to other parts of France.
>> 
>> So this gathering has dramatically inflated our statistics.
>> 
>> Locally, we're aware of what's happening  and respect the rules. In the
>> south-west of France or in Brittany, for instance - same country, same
>> statistics nationwide- you'd get a different picture altogether. That's
>> exactly what's happening in the US: California and NY will be hard hit and
>> are bracing for the tsunami whereas other places appear to be less
>> concerned - for now.
>> 
>> Granted, we do not test people enough, we're not strict enough with
>> confinement rules. In fact, there's only one rule, stay at home. One of my
>> friends, an ER doctor in one of Strasbourg's public hospitals, goes on
>> repeating this virus is VERY contagious, VERY dangerous for fragile people,
>> young or old.
>> 
>> And this will last for some time. We're supposed to reach a peak this week
>> - but this is may be true for Alsace or the Paris area, certainly not for
>> the rest of France.
>> JM
>> Jean-Michel Mertz
>> 68750 - Bergheim
>> 
>> ________________________________
>> De : LUG <lug-bounces+j2m46=hotmail.fr at leica-users.org> de la part de Don
>> Dory via LUG <lug at leica-users.org>
>> Envoyé : dimanche 22 mars 2020 12:54
>> À : Leica Users Group <lug at leica-users.org>
>> Cc : Don Dory <don.dory at gmail.com>
>> Objet : Re: [Leica] Whereas I found this article terrifying
>> 
>> My take away from the article was that the undiagnosed infection rates were
>> far higher than anyone wants to admit.   Even on high test states such as
>> S. KOREA there appears to be a good number of walking infected
>> asymtommatic.
>> 
>> More relevant would be comments from our European members as to the very
>> disparate mortality rates of Germany to France(~100 to ~400) Even
>> backtracking for population numbers France has a much higher mortality rate
>> with a similar proficiency in medical capabilities. Both countries should
>> have had similar initial exposure profiles and I assume reasonably similar
>> internal movement/ external tourism but I would like to know more.
>> 
>> On Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 11:15 PM Brian Reid <reid at mejac.palo-alto.ca.us>
>> wrote:
>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>> https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221.full
>>> 
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