[Leica] Whereas I found this article terrifying

[jayanand at gmail.com (Jayanand Govindaraj)]

As far as I know, there has been no death between the ages of 0-10 years
worldwide, and the death rate is negligible between the ages of 10-19. I
suggest you ingest the math of probability - in layman's terms, the chances
of death for an individual are not impossible, but improbable, as it is
with most pandemics/epidemics. The same probabilities probably are valid
for being run over by a car when crossing the road, or dying in an air
crash. Life, however, goes on....

The large majority of those for whom the disease proves fatal are over 75
years - I do not know about Europe, but the vast majority of Asians,
especially Chinese, in that age bracket are smokers, and it not surprising
that they get well and truly whacked by a virulent respiratory ailment. The
west, however, might face another threat altogether, not due to smoking,
but obesity, and hence might be more dangerous for younger age brackets. We
will have to wait and see.

Cheers
Jayanand

On Sun, Mar 22, 2020 at 8:34 PM Jean-Michel Mertz via LUG <
lug at leica-users.org> wrote:

> For the time being, I'd remain very wary about interpreting current
> statistics. Where I live - same part of France as Philippe though much
> closer to the infection hotbed - the situation varies from town to town,
> from village to village. The evangelical gathering already mentioned
> (mid-Feb, Mulhouse, thirty miles from where I live) was at the start of
> France's first coronavirus cluster zone: thousands of people attended, got
> the virus and then spread it throughout France, Europe and even as far as
> South America. Today hospitals in my area cannot cope anymore with the
> number of people in need of ICU beds and ventilators and hard choices have
> already to be made. Some relief is expected when the Army field hospital is
> up - tomorrow they say. But that's about 30 beds. A number of patients are
> flown to other parts of France.
>
> So this gathering has dramatically inflated our statistics.
>
> Locally, we're aware of what's happening  and respect the rules. In the
> south-west of France or in Brittany, for instance - same country, same
> statistics nationwide- you'd get a different picture altogether. That's
> exactly what's happening in the US: California and NY will be hard hit and
> are bracing for the tsunami whereas other places appear to be less
> concerned - for now.
>
> Granted, we do not test people enough, we're not strict enough with
> confinement rules. In fact, there's only one rule, stay at home. One of my
> friends, an ER doctor in one of Strasbourg's public hospitals, goes on
> repeating this virus is VERY contagious, VERY dangerous for fragile people,
> young or old.
>
> And this will last for some time. We're supposed to reach a peak this week
> - but this is may be true for Alsace or the Paris area, certainly not for
> the rest of France.
> JM
> Jean-Michel Mertz
> 68750 - Bergheim
>
> ________________________________
> De : LUG <lug-bounces+j2m46=hotmail.fr at leica-users.org> de la part de 
> Don
> Dory via LUG <lug at leica-users.org>
> Envoy? : dimanche 22 mars 2020 12:54
> ? : Leica Users Group <lug at leica-users.org>
> Cc : Don Dory <don.dory at gmail.com>
> Objet : Re: [Leica] Whereas I found this article terrifying
>
> My take away from the article was that the undiagnosed infection rates were
> far higher than anyone wants to admit.   Even on high test states such as
> S. KOREA there appears to be a good number of walking infected
> asymtommatic.
>
> More relevant would be comments from our European members as to the very
> disparate mortality rates of Germany to France(~100 to ~400) Even
> backtracking for population numbers France has a much higher mortality rate
> with a similar proficiency in medical capabilities. Both countries should
> have had similar initial exposure profiles and I assume reasonably similar
> internal movement/ external tourism but I would like to know more.
>
> On Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 11:15 PM Brian Reid <reid at mejac.palo-alto.ca.us>
> wrote:
>
> >
> >
> https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221.full
> >
> > _______________________________________________
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