Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2020/03/22

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Subject: [Leica] Whereas I found this article terrifying
From: j2m46 at hotmail.fr (Jean-Michel Mertz)
Date: Sun, 22 Mar 2020 15:04:13 +0000
References: <8dc5fc9f76391f45f895cf98f732c370@reid.org>, <CA+3n+_kkvP7xp_iebUfWUbhX1YjoU0rg_5NkprVjV-3PJq-igA@mail.gmail.com>

For the time being, I'd remain very wary about interpreting current 
statistics. Where I live - same part of France as Philippe though much 
closer to the infection hotbed - the situation varies from town to town, 
from village to village. The evangelical gathering already mentioned 
(mid-Feb, Mulhouse, thirty miles from where I live) was at the start of 
France's first coronavirus cluster zone: thousands of people attended, got 
the virus and then spread it throughout France, Europe and even as far as 
South America. Today hospitals in my area cannot cope anymore with the 
number of people in need of ICU beds and ventilators and hard choices have 
already to be made. Some relief is expected when the Army field hospital is 
up - tomorrow they say. But that's about 30 beds. A number of patients are 
flown to other parts of France.

So this gathering has dramatically inflated our statistics.

Locally, we're aware of what's happening  and respect the rules. In the 
south-west of France or in Brittany, for instance - same country, same 
statistics nationwide- you'd get a different picture altogether. That's 
exactly what's happening in the US: California and NY will be hard hit and 
are bracing for the tsunami whereas other places appear to be less concerned 
- for now.

Granted, we do not test people enough, we're not strict enough with 
confinement rules. In fact, there's only one rule, stay at home. One of my 
friends, an ER doctor in one of Strasbourg's public hospitals, goes on 
repeating this virus is VERY contagious, VERY dangerous for fragile people, 
young or old.

And this will last for some time. We're supposed to reach a peak this week - 
but this is may be true for Alsace or the Paris area, certainly not for the 
rest of France.
JM
Jean-Michel Mertz
68750 - Bergheim

________________________________
De : LUG <lug-bounces+j2m46=hotmail.fr at leica-users.org> de la part de Don 
Dory via LUG <lug at leica-users.org>
Envoy? : dimanche 22 mars 2020 12:54
? : Leica Users Group <lug at leica-users.org>
Cc : Don Dory <don.dory at gmail.com>
Objet : Re: [Leica] Whereas I found this article terrifying

My take away from the article was that the undiagnosed infection rates were
far higher than anyone wants to admit.   Even on high test states such as
S. KOREA there appears to be a good number of walking infected
asymtommatic.

More relevant would be comments from our European members as to the very
disparate mortality rates of Germany to France(~100 to ~400) Even
backtracking for population numbers France has a much higher mortality rate
with a similar proficiency in medical capabilities. Both countries should
have had similar initial exposure profiles and I assume reasonably similar
internal movement/ external tourism but I would like to know more.

On Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 11:15 PM Brian Reid <reid at mejac.palo-alto.ca.us>
wrote:

>
> https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221.full
>
> _______________________________________________
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>

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Replies: Reply from jayanand at gmail.com (Jayanand Govindaraj) ([Leica] Whereas I found this article terrifying)
In reply to: Message from reid at mejac.palo-alto.ca.us (Brian Reid) ([Leica] Whereas I found this article terrifying)
Message from don.dory at gmail.com (Don Dory) ([Leica] Whereas I found this article terrifying)