Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2012/04/21
[Author Prev] [Author Next] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Author Index] [Topic Index] [Home] [Search]Aside from the ad hominem attacks, what about the merits of their argument and data? Robert On Apr 21, 2012, at 10:43 PM, Ric Carter wrote: > SPPI is run by a career politician whose numbers do not seem to match > those of most scientists. > > <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_Public_Policy_Institute> > > i smell Koch money > > ric > > > On Apr 21, 2012, at 11:15 PM, Robert Meier wrote: > >> >> >> No Global Warming For 15 Years >> >> Source: GWPF >> >> New UK Met Office global temperature data confirms that the world has not >> warmed in the past 15 years. >> >> Analysis by the GWPF of the newly released HadCRUT4 global temperature >> database shows that there has been no global warming in the past 15 years >> ? a timescale that challenges current models of global warming. >> >> The graph shows the global annual average temperature since 1997. No >> statistically significant trend can be discerned from the data. The only >> statistically acceptable conclusion to be drawn from the HadCRUT4 data is >> that between 1997 ? 2011 it has remained constant, with a global >> temperature of 14.44 +/- 0.16 deg C (2 standard deviations.) >> >> The important question is whether 15 years is a sufficient length of time >> from which to draw climatic conclusions that are usually considered over >> 30 years, as well as its implications for climate projections. >> >> The IPCC states that anthropogenic influences on the climate dominated >> natural ones sometime between 1960 ? 80.The recent episode of global >> warming that occurred after that transition began in 1980. The world has >> warmed by about 0.4 deg C in this time. Whilst we live in the warmest >> decade of the instrumental era of global temperature measurement >> (post-1880), and the 90s were warmer than the 80s, the world has not got >> any warmer in the last 15 years. In 2001 and 2007 the Intergovernmental >> Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (and here) estimated that the world would >> warm at a rate of 0.2 deg C per decade in the future due to greenhouse >> gas forcing. Since those predictions were made it has become clear that >> the world has not been warming at that rate. Some scientists >> retrospectively revised their forecasts saying that the 0.2 deg C figure >> is an average one. Larger or smaller rates of warming are possible as >> short-term variations. >> >> Global warming simulations, some carried out by the UK Met Office (here, >> here and here), have been able to reproduce ?standstills? in global >> warming of a decade or so while still maintaining the long-term 0.2 deg C >> per decade average. These decadal standstills occur about once every >> eight decades. However, such climate simulations have not been able to >> reproduce a 15-year standstill: >> >> ?Near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade >> or less in the simulations, due to the model?s internal climate >> variability. The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for >> intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of >> warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the >> expected present-day warming rate? (NOAA 2008). >> >> We also note a comment in an email sent by Professor Phil Jones of the >> University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit: ?Bottom line ? the no >> upward trend has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get >> worried.? >> >> Whether the global temperature standstill of the past 15 years continues >> or is replaced by warming, as the IPCC predicts, only future data will >> tell. In the meantime the length of the standstill means that the >> challenge it offers for models of future climate prediction, and >> explanations for past warming, cannot be ignored. >> >> Dr David Whitehouse, science editor of the GWPF, said: >> >> ?We are at the point where the temperature standstill is becoming the >> dominant feature of the post-1980 warming, and as such cannot be >> dismissed as being unimportant even when viewed over 30 years.? >> >> ?It is time that the scientific community in general and the IPCC in >> particular acknowledged the reality of the global temperature standstill >> and the very real challenge it implies for our understanding of climate >> change and estimates of its future effects.? >> >> ?It is a demonstration that the science is not settled, and that there >> are great uncertainties in our understanding of the real-world greenhouse >> effect when combined with anthropogenic and natural factors.? >> >> Contact: >> david.whitehouse at gwpf.org >> GWPF: 0207 79306856 >> >> Technical note: The HadCRUT4 database has been released from 1997 ? 2010. >> The 2011 datapoint has been estimated from the differences between >> HadCRUT4 and the two published versions of the previous dataset, >> HadCRUT3, as observed over the past decade. As the HadCRUT3 data includes >> 2011 it is possible to estimate HadCRUT4 as lying between the specified >> error bars. >> >> This entry was posted on Monday, April 2nd, 2012 at 1:23 pm and is >> filed under News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the >> RSS 2.0 feed. >> >> >> >> Sonny -- >> >> The graph didn't copy. Here is the URL: >> >> http://sppiblog.org/news/no-global-warming-for-15-years#more-7427 >> >> Robert >> >> >> >> On Apr 21, 2012, at 9:51 PM, Sonny Carter wrote: >> >>> On Sat, Apr 21, 2012 at 9:47 AM, Robert Meier <robertmeier at usjet.net> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> Actually the average global temperature has not risen in 15 years. >>>> >>> >>> Reference please. >>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Regards, >>> >>> Sonny >>> http://sonc.com/look/ >>> http://sonc-hegr.tumblr.com/ >>> Natchitoches, Louisiana >>> >>> USA >>> >>> _______________________________________________ >>> Leica Users Group. >>> See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Leica Users Group. >> See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information > > > _______________________________________________ > Leica Users Group. > See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information