Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2006/04/23

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Subject: [Leica] Re:Bye Bye Mamiya
From: don.dory at (Don Dory)
Date: Sun Apr 23 09:04:05 2006
References: <000201c6661f$30c87260$656c0e44@newukolbqveo9i> <> <9526-SnapperMsg4EA12C31C0700CC3@> <9535-SnapperMsg4EA12C31C0702184@> <> <9611-SnapperMsg4EA12C31C07122D1@>

Two things will make a camera obsolete.  One is the inability to get
batteries once the original ones lose their ability to hold a charge.  In
ten years I doubt any current manufacturer will support the battery choices
they made a decade earlier.  The second is storage device.  Once nobody
makes 35mm film a 35mm camera is a hockey puck; large format can go to
coating glass plates to stay in business.  In the digital realm the
discontinuation of smart media has put a crimp to using those cameras as
cards die or get murdered.  Likewise, looking out ten years I see CF cards
being discontinued for three reasons, maybe four.

First is the 24? little pins that can get bent shorting out an expensive
part of the camera.  From a manufacturers point of view, warranty claims are
a no win situation; this is one reason the amateur market has gone to the SD
format.  Second is size, to appeal to the mass market the cameras will get
smaller and the space devoted to that card is valuable real estate. The
third is simple market share.  As the consumer cameras switch to SD the
market for CF gets smaller and smaller providing less reason to keep up R&D
when that same money can make SD(or whatever) bigger/faster.  The last maybe
reason is patent cross licensing.  As patents die on CF there is no benefit
to cross licensing so any flash memory producer can enter the market driving
prices down below interest in keeping the device on the market.

XD cards have a similar liability as neither Olympus or Fuji have a
commanding market share.  The XD card is not as easy to find so consumers
are somewhat hesitant to buy into a machine that takes a strange device.
This is not big now, but as devices other than cameras use memory devices
then the consumer will want to share those memory devices across platforms.
Actually this is going to drive the micro SD devices if they can pack 1GB
into them.

Alright, I thought of a fifth.  Lack of software support.  Looking out ten
years, if a camera company changes their software on new cameras for
legitimate productivity reasons then by the time we get into the third or
fourth change in image manipulation software then the old may not be
readable especially if it was from a small market share device.  RAW
especially would be impacted while I suspect a JPEG would still be readable.

I think that it will be rather funny that in ten or fifteen years I will
still be able to shoot a 1930's camera albiet with difficulty but that the
spanking new digi wonder camera of today may not be useable.

So, ducking into the bunker, for those folks who value longevity of a camera
as far as usefullnes then I would make buying decisions on a top two
manufacturer and would make it a habit to keep updating the firmware.
Images should be saved in a universal format, possibly both TIFF and DNG if
I was truly paranoid.  Or, I could just keep my negs and slides in a dark,
cool, dry place.  Although in honesty, I see a time in the not too distant
future when getting film printed or scanned will be an interesting
enterprise, much like getting E-2 film processed.

Shoot what you like, just keep pushing the make the image button.


On 4/23/06, B. D. Colen <> wrote:
> That is precisely where you're wrong, Jayanand.
> ___
> Sent with SnapperMail
> ...... Original Message .......
> On Sun, 23 Apr 2006 08:19:16 +0530 Jayanand Govindaraj
> <> wrote:
> "BD,
> "Your Olympus will get obsolete (at least in your own mind) much
> faster....
> "Jayanand
> "
> "
> "B. D. Colen wrote:
> "
> ">Gave it to my son. And by the way, yr M2 will outlast my Olympus because
> of
> ">build quality - but it, the M2, will still be an artifact of a long gone
> ">era.
> ">___
> ">Sent with SnapperMail
> ">
> ">
> ">...... Original Message .......
> ">On Sat, 22 Apr 2006 19:31:49 +0200 "Daniel Ridings" <
> >
> ">wrote:
> ">"On 4/22/06, B. D. Colen <> wrote:
> ">"> ...  My point had less than nothing to do with build
> ">"> quality. :-)
> ">"
> ">"Neither did mine. I was talking about your Olympus become obsolete
> ">"before my M2. The M2 will last several generations of Olympus.
> ">"
> ">"> Shoot on!
> ">"
> ">"Agreed! That's where it gets fun.
> ">"
> ">"On another note ... whatever happened to your Retina IIIc ?
> ">"
> ">"Best,
> ">"Daniel
> ">"
> ">"
> ">"_______________________________________________
> ">"Leica Users Group.
> ">"See for more information
> ">
> ">
> ">_______________________________________________
> ">Leica Users Group.
> ">See for more information
> ">
> ">
> ">
> ">
> "
> "
> "
> "_______________________________________________
> "Leica Users Group.
> "See for more information
> _______________________________________________
> Leica Users Group.
> See for more information

In reply to: Message from jsmith342 at (Jeffery Smith) ([Leica] Re:Bye Bye Mamiya)
Message from dlridings at (Daniel Ridings) ([Leica] Re:Bye Bye Mamiya)
Message from jgovindaraj at (Jayanand Govindaraj) ([Leica] Re:Bye Bye Mamiya)