Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2005/04/10

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Subject: [Leica] For B.D.
From: dorysrus at mindspring.com (Don Dory)
Date: Sun Apr 10 17:34:01 2005

B.D.
There is a lot of very poor sampling going on with respect to digital
camera sales.  Kodak is claiming #1 status, and so is Canon.  I suspect
all digital camera sales claims depend on reading the fine print.
Kodak's claims are probably shipments not actual sales, Canons are based
on actual retail transactions, but they didn't count big box chains.

The last numbers I saw from PMA had Olympus number five or six, behind
Kodak, Sony, Canon, and Nikon.  I didn't bother to read the fine print
so the above is probably meaningless.  What does have meaning is that
Canon reported record profits, Nikon reported good profits, Sony was
profitable but in a conglomerate who knows.  Kodak's earnings for the
fourth quarter were heavily weighted by shipments of the co-branded
Lexar memory cards.  How many have been actually sold and how many
re-orders would be something to look at for the first and second
quarter.

-----Original Message-----
From: lug-bounces+dorysrus=mindspring.com@leica-users.org
[mailto:lug-bounces+dorysrus=mindspring.com@leica-users.org] On Behalf
Of B. D. Colen
Sent: Sunday, April 10, 2005 5:10 PM
To: 'Leica Users Group'
Subject: RE: [Leica] For B.D.

I  may be wrong, but I believe that Olympus is No.3 in overall digital
sales - beyond Canon and Nikon. Obviously the overwhelming bulk of those
sales are P&S.

-----Original Message-----
From: lug-bounces+bdcolen=earthlink.net@leica-users.org
[mailto:lug-bounces+bdcolen=earthlink.net@leica-users.org] On Behalf Of
Don Dory
Sent: Sunday, April 10, 2005 5:31 PM
To: 'Leica Users Group'
Subject: RE: [Leica] For B.D.


B.D.
My revelation as to soccer moms was at a camera store in Dallas near
SMU.  They had sold something like 10 1Ds's and 100-400 zooms to
families that wanted to record their children.  The same is true here in
Atlanta, I have one friend that popped for a 400 2.8 to take pictures at
high school football games.  Then there are the wrestling moms that
bought 50 1.4 lenses to take pictures of their children on the mat.
Ordinary families are buying 70-200 F2.8 lenses to take sports pictures
of their children.

When it comes to children and memories, people will spend a pile if the
tool really works.

When it comes to sensor size, the 20D and I assume the D200 will have
8-10MP and a fully useable 3200 ISO: which makes a 2.8 zoom possible to
live with.  Then there are the 24 and 28 F1.4 lenses in the competitors
line up for people who shoot in dim light without flash.  I am not sure
that the F2 zooms will be enough to bring things around for the pro
market.

As to the amateur market, that is all about marketing and availability
at your local Wally World.  If Olympus wants to go beyond the market
share they had with the OM system, they really need to get word and
product out.  Here in Atlanta, Pentax is outselling Olympus in both P&S
and DSLR by quite a large margin.

0.02

Don
dorysrus@mindspring.com

-----Original Message-----
From: lug-bounces+dorysrus=mindspring.com@leica-users.org
[mailto:lug-bounces+dorysrus=mindspring.com@leica-users.org] On Behalf
Of B. D. Colen
Sent: Sunday, April 10, 2005 1:13 PM
To: 'Leica Users Group'
Subject: RE: [Leica] For B.D.

Sorry, Don - But I want that f2 zoom to shoot at 800, and only at 1600
once and a while - just as I shot with my Ms...and my M lens line up was
2.8 at 21mm, f2 at 28, 1.4 at 35, 1.5 at 50, and f 20 at 90...So thus
far I don't have the 1.4 - but I'll end up with pretty similar
capabilities.

I disagree that the sensor size is a lemon, and would suggest that the
recent Panasonic sign on suggests that that former Leica partner sees
some viability in it. The real question is going to be how firmware
develops, and whether that ultimate overcomes the noise.

As to soccer Moms, let's get real here - most will by a P&S with a
sensor the size of a pea, or a cheap DSLR with a 4.5 to 6.3 zoom, to
crank out 4x6s and noise really isn't an issue for them, because they'll
pop the damn flash most of the time. :-) (Haven't you ever wondered
about all those stadium concerts and events with the literally thousands
of people sitting five miles up in the stands firing their P&S film
cameras with the flashes? :-) )

B. D.

-----Original Message-----
From: lug-bounces+bdcolen=earthlink.net@leica-users.org
[mailto:lug-bounces+bdcolen=earthlink.net@leica-users.org] On Behalf Of
Don Dory
Sent: Sunday, April 10, 2005 1:39 PM
To: 'Leica Users Group'
Subject: RE: [Leica] For B.D.


Feli,
Olympus is trying to turn the lemon of a sensor size into lemonade by
creating fast glass so that 800ISO at F2 is the same as 1600 as F2.8.
With the emphasis on limited DOF in the fashion world I give them a fair
chance of pulling it off.  Naw, the soccer mom shooting soccer or
football will not be able to keep enough in focus at F2, and there are
some really good lenses from independent manufacturers that are 2.8,
quite good, quite cheap, and in the other guys mounts.

Again, I think Olympus is in a niche market with the 4/3 system.  A very
good system that only a few people will appreciate. :(

Don
dorysrus@mindspring.com

-----Original Message-----
From: lug-bounces+dorysrus=mindspring.com@leica-users.org
[mailto:lug-bounces+dorysrus=mindspring.com@leica-users.org] On Behalf
Of Feli
Sent: Sunday, April 10, 2005 11:40 AM
To: Leica Users Group
Subject: Re: [Leica] For B.D.


On Apr 10, 2005, at 5:07 AM, B. D. Colen wrote:

> Boy, there's a shocker!:-) There's only one problem with all of it,
and
> I say this as an Olympus whore -
Shocking, isn't it? ;-)

>  thus far, the smaller sensor does seem
> to translate into more noise at higher isos. It may well be that this
> can be overcome, but there seems little question that at this point, 
> the Canon DSLR's provide the lowest noise levels.

And that right there is my problem with the 4/3 system. I simply don't 
think
they will be able to get the noise levels down, given the size of the 
chip,
especially above 800asa. Both Nikon and Canon are struggling to keep
things clean with the slightly bigger APS size. It a shame because it 
looks
like a very nice system They  recently announced a 14-35mm (35mm
equiv: 28-70mm) f2.0 and 35-100mm (35mm equiv: 70-200mm) f2.0. No one
else is making fast glass like that.

feli
________________________________________________________
feli2@earthlink.net                     2 + 2 = 4
www.elanphotos.com

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In reply to: Message from bdcolen at earthlink.net (B. D. Colen) ([Leica] For B.D.)