Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2003/02/20

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Subject: Re: [Leica] Digital - Rumor Mongering long
From: "Don Dory" <dorysrus@mindspring.com>
Date: Thu, 20 Feb 2003 14:13:58 -0500
References: <A1F9CC2A-44FE-11D7-94D2-0050E42E6E0B@shaw.ca>

John,
Let's see, the Contax D1 has been pretty much a flop on the market at the
same time that their film camera's have been more or less abandoned with the
confusion on which mount is still being promoted.

Minolta has just joined Konica for their copier business.  The Minolta
digital 7 series is languishing behind the offerings from Nikon(4700, 5000,
5700), Canon(G2, G3), Fuji(602), Olympus(the whole E series).  Their highly
promoted X is two months late to market, missed the whole Christmas cycle.
Their film cameras are just like anyone else's, selling very slowly.

Pentax has a lower cost structure but has some fairly slow selling digital
P&S.  Likewise their film cameras are selling fairly slowly.

Nikon was late to market with their D100, took a long time to get production
to the point that you could actually buy one.  Their 5000 is looking long in
the tooth as well as the 4700.  Like everyone else, their film cameras are
selling real slowly.  Oh, and there is confusion as to their commitment to
film with the new lenses that don't cover 35mm.

Olympus has left the SLR business but is in the top three or four selling
their generally excellent line of digital P&S.  Their E line is in some
trouble due to the D60 and D100 offering interchangeable lenses in a similar
price point.

Kodak's camera business is hemorrhaging money.  Their 14 MP camera may be
shipping now, or it may not.

Canon has the best selling SLR, The Rebel Ti, the second best selling SLR,
the Rebel 2000, and the third best selling SLR, the Rebel G.   Their film
P&S are doing fine. The G3 is selling very briskly, their ELPH 230 and 330
are selling as fast as they can build them.  They had two factories building
D60's as fast as they could, discontinued the D60, and will replace it with
two cameras that will ship in March: this will effectively bracket the Nikon
D100, whatever Pentax builds, and perhaps will compete with whatever Olympus
comes out with.

What does this mean? Maybe Canon is making money in digital.  Their
photography division is profitable.  Olympus is profitable. Fuji with their
own foundry is probably making money on their digital business.   Everyone
else is taking really big hits trying to play, hoping that they can survive
long enough.

The morale.  It is very possible that a small specialty company can wait out
the early wars and introduce their product as a niche product with most of
the R&D paid for by someone else.  The trick is that the Japanese look at
the cost of producing the next box more than what the amortized cost of all
the R&D.

Who knows, we will have to wait and see.

Don
dorysrus@mindspring.com

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In reply to: Message from John Collier <jbcollier@shaw.ca> (Re: [Leica] Digital Rangefinder in F Mount by Nikon - Rumor Mongering)