[Leica] mainstream thinking

[Erwin Puts <imxputs@knoware.nl>]

The Economist had a few years ago conclusive evidence that most 
predictions are false. The simple reason is that everyone looking at 
the future can do so only with todays shaky knowledge and through the 
looking glass shaped by yesterdays events. Leica watchers are no 
exception as are analysts of todays photographic scene or a segment 
thereof as the rangefinder market.
Mainstream thinking as exemplified by the admittedly very small (and 
most probably not representative) sample of the currently active Lug 
and Leg contributors  has it that
1.the high end rangefinder market is on the verge of an explosive 
growth and rekindled vitality.
2. Leica is in a bad position to take advantage of this growth potential
3. Leica's product strategy is flawed to the extreme, as the R8 is a 
lame duck and the M6 is obsolete
4. Leica should concentrate on their core business, which is 
designing optical systems
5. the current and rumored new Japanese offerings will kill the 
equivalent Leica products
6. Leica cannot deliver and has lost its innovative edge

A few years ago exactly the same statements were made about Porsche 
and the high end sportscar market and all analysts laughed at the new 
CEO of Porsche who had no experience in this area. Three years later 
the Porsche company thrived, stocks are sky high and the unknown 
'inexperienced' CEO now is the most quoted car boss.
So much for analysts and predictions.
Now a few observations by myself, admittedly without any credibility:
The rangefinder market is a mature market as it is slogging on for 50 
years. No example is known in the industrial world since 1900 that 
such a market will accelerate by the introduction of a few 
competitive products without serious innovative potential compared to 
the mainstream products.
Why Leica should be in a bad strategic position escapes my logic.
If the M6 is obsolete so are almost all rollfilm rangefinders by 
Mamiya and Fuji. And the Hasselblad etc.
The R8 is not a lame duck and I would ask anyone who says so to give 
reliable hard facts, and not rumors by some salesperson.
The core business of Leica is not designing optics, it is designing 
opto-mechanical photographic systems,which makes a BIG difference.
All evidence by now suggests that the only competitor till now, the 
Contax G did not kill the M, which has a 24% growth the last year, 
not withstanding it to be obsolete and threatened by Japan Inc.
There is still not a thread of evidence that the Hexar RF , Bessa and 
Yashimura will eat into the Leica M marketshare. There is only 
wishful thinking and Leica doomsday projections,but no evidence.
Leica has trouble  to deliver. True. Lost its innovative edge? Wait and see!

Erwin