[Leica] Whereas I found this article terrifying

[Jean-Michel Mertz]

For the time being, I'd remain very wary about interpreting current statistics. Where I live - same part of France as Philippe though much closer to the infection hotbed - the situation varies from town to town, from village to village. The evangelical gathering already mentioned (mid-Feb, Mulhouse, thirty miles from where I live) was at the start of France's first coronavirus cluster zone: thousands of people attended, got the virus and then spread it throughout France, Europe and even as far as South America. Today hospitals in my area cannot cope anymore with the number of people in need of ICU beds and ventilators and hard choices have already to be made. Some relief is expected when the Army field hospital is up - tomorrow they say. But that's about 30 beds. A number of patients are flown to other parts of France.

So this gathering has dramatically inflated our statistics.

Locally, we're aware of what's happening  and respect the rules. In the south-west of France or in Brittany, for instance - same country, same statistics nationwide- you'd get a different picture altogether. That's exactly what's happening in the US: California and NY will be hard hit and are bracing for the tsunami whereas other places appear to be less concerned - for now.

Granted, we do not test people enough, we're not strict enough with confinement rules. In fact, there's only one rule, stay at home. One of my friends, an ER doctor in one of Strasbourg's public hospitals, goes on repeating this virus is VERY contagious, VERY dangerous for fragile people, young or old.

And this will last for some time. We're supposed to reach a peak this week - but this is may be true for Alsace or the Paris area, certainly not for the rest of France.
JM
Jean-Michel Mertz
68750 - Bergheim

________________________________
De : LUG <lug-bounces+j2m46=hotmail.fr at leica-users.org> de la part de Don Dory via LUG <lug at leica-users.org>
Envoyé : dimanche 22 mars 2020 12:54
À : Leica Users Group <lug at leica-users.org>
Cc : Don Dory <don.dory at gmail.com>
Objet : Re: [Leica] Whereas I found this article terrifying

My take away from the article was that the undiagnosed infection rates were
far higher than anyone wants to admit.   Even on high test states such as
S. KOREA there appears to be a good number of walking infected
asymtommatic.

More relevant would be comments from our European members as to the very
disparate mortality rates of Germany to France(~100 to ~400) Even
backtracking for population numbers France has a much higher mortality rate
with a similar proficiency in medical capabilities. Both countries should
have had similar initial exposure profiles and I assume reasonably similar
internal movement/ external tourism but I would like to know more.

On Sat, Mar 21, 2020, 11:15 PM Brian Reid <reid at mejac.palo-alto.ca.us>
wrote:

>
> https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221.full
>
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