[Leica] [LRflex] Declining Camera production...

[Jayanand Govindaraj]

Aram,
The problem of endlessly reading statistics based on percentages is we lose
sight of both the absolute numbers and the installed base. Mirrorless is
coming off a low base, so percentage gains years on year is bound to look
spectacular. For example, I remember reading somewhere that Sony's share of
the ILC system camera market was around 12-13% (Canon was at 49%, Nikon at
25% - I forget whether it was for Japan, US or the whole world, but the
logic, I think, does not change). If they have 67% of the ILC mirrorless
market, as has been widely reported, then the total for mirrorless would
be, at most, 20% of the market. Therefore, on a rough, rule of thumb
reckoning, you should see only 20-25% of the camera systems as mirrorless
in public use.
Cheers
Jayanand



On Tue, Feb 12, 2019 at 9:03 AM Aram Langhans via LUG <lug at leica-users.org>
wrote:

> When I am on a trip I pay attention to the types of cameras people are
> using.  This last two trips, Fall and Winter, I was surprised at what I
> saw.  Nikon has the lion's share, which is different from previous trips
> where Canon and Nikon were more or less equally represented.  But what
> really surprised me was that mirrorless cameras were very rare.  I had
> expected from all I read that they are taking over the world.  Not so at
> Albuquerque balloon fiesta or Yosemite in October or December.  Those
> that I did see were mainly Sony, but I even saw a few Fuji and Olympus.
> I saw quite a few more old film cameras out and about in Yosemite.
> Pentax for the most part and a few Leica.
>
> Overall, not at all what I was expecting.  It will be interesting to see
> this Spring if any of the Nikon or Canon mirrorless are to be spotted.
> Of course, the most common was the cell phone. Mediocrity wins all the
> time.
>
> Aram
>
> On 2/11/2019 6:52 PM, David Young wrote:
> >   From today's 43Rumors.com ...
> >
> >> The bottom line is very bad though. We are below 20 million units per
> >> year and mirrorless cameras don't gain as much traction as you might
> >> think (2% increase per year vs. 12% decrease in DSLR). For the first
> >> time, interchangeable lens cameras surpassed the sales of compact
> >> cameras (not surprising, to be honest). If you look at the entire decade
> >> you see an unbelievable drop of 84% from 2010 to 2018 in the number of
> >> cameras sold/made per year.
> > For interest I dug up the numbers for the best year film cameras had.
> >
> > All I had to do was consult my "Brief History of Photography"  (cheap
> plug!)  to find that 1997 was the biggest year for film camera production,
> at 36.7 million units. However, I cannot find a breakdown to P&S vs SLR's
> for that year.
> >
> > It seems total camera production was insanely boosted by the advent of
> digita,l as 2010 peaked at 121 million units (including who-knows-how-many
> P&S cameras).  From there, it has dropped to a mere 19 million units in
> 2018.
> >
> > It's no wonder that cameras are rising in price, as the makers try to
> concentrate on higher value mirrorless & dSLR models, to keep their income
> up, as units slide.
> >
> > David.
> >
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