Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2020/03/22
[Author Prev] [Author Next] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Author Index] [Topic Index] [Home] [Search]Howard, The economic cycle was due for a severe contraction as we have had the longest US expansion in history. The COVID 19 is just the straw that broke the camels back, and not the sole cause. In economic cycles, as everywhere, there is a tendency to "revert to the mean", and in the attempt to do so, will overreact, both to the downside and upside. You have had an unsustainablely robust economy for some time now, so why crib at the natural tendency to correct? It is even more pronounced in the markets, because they are not sluggish to react as whole economies are. Those who have money in the markets, whether equity, debt, commodities, what have you, have to do the due diligence to secure themselves. Depending wholly on others is only an abrogation of responsibility, and inevitably loses money in the long term. However, for those who are young, and have systematic investment plans (SIP) set up, the periodic investment in such terrifying markets will be responsible for the bulk of their wealth in the future, as they are really acquiring assets in a fire sale. Cheers Jayanand On Sun, Mar 22, 2020 at 9:25 PM Howard Ritter via LUG <lug at leica-users.org> wrote: > Jayanand, the fatality rate is only part of the story. None of us > individually is likely to die of this, and most of us won?t lose any family > members. > > What?s of greater concern, in my opinion, is the massive economic > disruption that will be caused by hundreds of millions of workers all > around the globe, in all parts of the global chains of supply and demand, > staying home, perhaps for months, and millions of businesses being > shuttered. Many jobs and businesses are inelastic and vulnerable, and will > be lost, and regeneration will take years. In the U.S., millions of > retirees, many of whom depend on income from their retirement investments, > will see the value of those accounts drop too low to sustain the usual > withdrawals and will have to make major life adjustments, with knock-on > effects throughout the economy. > > Death rates always increase in times of severe economic disruption. Excess > deaths due to the coming depression may exceed those due to COVID > infection. What?s coming may be worse than the Great Depression. > > Meanwhile, the Trump administration, with an alarming degree of complicity > by Democrats, is planning to buy votes by showering cash on us. Perversely, > those with low incomes will receive LESS money than those of better means, > and discrimination is to be made only on the basis of income, not of actual > need ? between those who keep their jobs or are able to live on Social > Security and pensions, and those who don?t and can?t. Money that should be > reserved for sustaining jobless benefits will be squandered on those whose > incomes are unaffected. > > This is the best that our government can do? > > All of that is what terrifies me. > > ?howard > > > On Mar22, 2020, at 0345, Jayanand Govindaraj via LUG < > lug at leica-users.org> wrote: > > > > If that is true, all the means is that the fatality rate is way lower > than > > it is being reported to be, so, again, why get terrified? > > > > Cheers > > Jayanand > > > > On Sun, Mar 22, 2020 at 10:09 AM Brian Reid <reid at > > mejac.palo-alto.ca.us> > > wrote: > > > >> Because it says that more than half of SARS-2 virus infections come from > >> undiagnosed asymptomatic people. > >> > >> On 2020-03-21 9:20 pm, Jayanand Govindaraj via LUG wrote: > >>> Why? This is one of the risks of merely living. Being terrified never > >>> helps > >>> in making rational decisions! > >>> > >>> Cheers > >>> Jayanand > >>> > >>> On Sun, Mar 22, 2020 at 9:45 AM Brian Reid <reid at > >>> mejac.palo-alto.ca.us > > > >>> wrote: > >>> > >>>> > >>>> > >> > https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221.full > >> > >> _______________________________________________ > >> Leica Users Group. > >> See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information > >> > > > > _______________________________________________ > > Leica Users Group. > > See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information > > > _______________________________________________ > Leica Users Group. > See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information