Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2012/04/21
[Author Prev] [Author Next] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Author Index] [Topic Index] [Home] [Search]SPPI is run by a career politician whose numbers do not seem to match those of most scientists. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_and_Public_Policy_Institute> i smell Koch money ric On Apr 21, 2012, at 11:15 PM, Robert Meier wrote: > > > No Global Warming For 15 Years > > Source: GWPF > > New UK Met Office global temperature data confirms that the world has not > warmed in the past 15 years. > > Analysis by the GWPF of the newly released HadCRUT4 global temperature > database shows that there has been no global warming in the past 15 years > ? a timescale that challenges current models of global warming. > > The graph shows the global annual average temperature since 1997. No > statistically significant trend can be discerned from the data. The only > statistically acceptable conclusion to be drawn from the HadCRUT4 data is > that between 1997 ? 2011 it has remained constant, with a global > temperature of 14.44 +/- 0.16 deg C (2 standard deviations.) > > The important question is whether 15 years is a sufficient length of time > from which to draw climatic conclusions that are usually considered over > 30 years, as well as its implications for climate projections. > > The IPCC states that anthropogenic influences on the climate dominated > natural ones sometime between 1960 ? 80.The recent episode of global > warming that occurred after that transition began in 1980. The world has > warmed by about 0.4 deg C in this time. Whilst we live in the warmest > decade of the instrumental era of global temperature measurement > (post-1880), and the 90s were warmer than the 80s, the world has not got > any warmer in the last 15 years. In 2001 and 2007 the Intergovernmental > Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (and here) estimated that the world would > warm at a rate of 0.2 deg C per decade in the future due to greenhouse gas > forcing. Since those predictions were made it has become clear that the > world has not been warming at that rate. Some scientists retrospectively > revised their forecasts saying that the 0.2 deg C figure is an average > one. Larger or smaller rates of warming are possible as short-term > variations. > > Global warming simulations, some carried out by the UK Met Office (here, > here and here), have been able to reproduce ?standstills? in global > warming of a decade or so while still maintaining the long-term 0.2 deg C > per decade average. These decadal standstills occur about once every eight > decades. However, such climate simulations have not been able to reproduce > a 15-year standstill: > > ?Near-zero and even negative trends are common for intervals of a decade > or less in the simulations, due to the model?s internal climate > variability. The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for > intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming > of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected > present-day warming rate? (NOAA 2008). > > We also note a comment in an email sent by Professor Phil Jones of the > University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit: ?Bottom line ? the no > upward trend has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get > worried.? > > Whether the global temperature standstill of the past 15 years continues > or is replaced by warming, as the IPCC predicts, only future data will > tell. In the meantime the length of the standstill means that the > challenge it offers for models of future climate prediction, and > explanations for past warming, cannot be ignored. > > Dr David Whitehouse, science editor of the GWPF, said: > > ?We are at the point where the temperature standstill is becoming the > dominant feature of the post-1980 warming, and as such cannot be dismissed > as being unimportant even when viewed over 30 years.? > > ?It is time that the scientific community in general and the IPCC in > particular acknowledged the reality of the global temperature standstill > and the very real challenge it implies for our understanding of climate > change and estimates of its future effects.? > > ?It is a demonstration that the science is not settled, and that there are > great uncertainties in our understanding of the real-world greenhouse > effect when combined with anthropogenic and natural factors.? > > Contact: > david.whitehouse at gwpf.org > GWPF: 0207 79306856 > > Technical note: The HadCRUT4 database has been released from 1997 ? 2010. > The 2011 datapoint has been estimated from the differences between > HadCRUT4 and the two published versions of the previous dataset, HadCRUT3, > as observed over the past decade. As the HadCRUT3 data includes 2011 it is > possible to estimate HadCRUT4 as lying between the specified error bars. > > This entry was posted on Monday, April 2nd, 2012 at 1:23 pm and is > filed under News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the > RSS 2.0 feed. > > > > Sonny -- > > The graph didn't copy. Here is the URL: > > http://sppiblog.org/news/no-global-warming-for-15-years#more-7427 > > Robert > > > > On Apr 21, 2012, at 9:51 PM, Sonny Carter wrote: > >> On Sat, Apr 21, 2012 at 9:47 AM, Robert Meier <robertmeier at usjet.net> >> wrote: >> >>> Actually the average global temperature has not risen in 15 years. >>> >> >> Reference please. >> >> >> >> -- >> Regards, >> >> Sonny >> http://sonc.com/look/ >> http://sonc-hegr.tumblr.com/ >> Natchitoches, Louisiana >> >> USA >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Leica Users Group. >> See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information > > > _______________________________________________ > Leica Users Group. > See http://leica-users.org/mailman/listinfo/lug for more information