Re: [Leica] Doom and gloom not, was Re: Y2K off- topic (long)

[tedgrant@islandnet.com (Ted Grant)]

Alistair Stewart wrote: A whole bunch of neat stuff on the Y2k whatever.
Fit your own paranoyia in here.

Hi Allistair,

Many thanks for putting this media mega hyped change over into a reasonable
outlook.  I printed it out for my wife to read and she, quite frankly, felt
much better about Y2K compared to what she had been led to believe after
the madhouse ramblings of the hyped-up media bullshit to sell air time and
ad space.

Glad to know my R8 wont go bonkers and firing roll after roll, exposing the
film through the viewfinder window! :)

thanks again for the perspective.
ted









>To your specific points, here is my $0.02. The Leica content is towards the
>end.
>
>1. Electricity
>
>The Electric Power Industry has scheduled a press conference on the Year
>2000 State of
>Readiness for the Electric Industry in North America on January 11, 1999,
>1:30 PM at the National Press Club in Washington D.C. At this press
>conference, North American Electric Reliability Council  (NERC) will present
>to U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Bill Richardson the electric
>industry's second report on its state of readiness for
>the year 2000. John Koskinen, Chair of the President's Council on the Year
>2000 Conversion will participate in the press conference.
>
>NERC will be hosting the event and will be joined by its partners in the
>process which includes the Edison Electric Institute, Nuclear Energy
>Institute, American Public Power Association, National Rural Electric
>Cooperative Association and others.
>
>A copy of the first report, "Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North
>America for the Transition to the Year 2000" which was presented to the
>Department of Energy on September 17, 1998, is available from NERC
>(www.NERC.COM)  & EEI (www.EEI.ORG) web sites along with other electric
>industry year 2000 related information. The latest
>(January 1999) Y2k report will be updated on the Web sites during the
>afternoon
>of January 11, 1999.
>
>It is anticipated that the event will be covered by C-SPAN.
>
>2. Telcomms: Major carriers are individually giving credible Y2K messages.
>Service outages may occur, but this is unlikely to be systemic. Dign up with
>a large carrier if at all possible. Digital cellular is a good backup to
>regular land lines or analogue cellular, but will not eliminate the
>possibility of outages. Check out the website of your providor
>
>3. Transportation: Too broad a category to say, but play it safe. Don't have
>plans requiring travel. Put some spare petrol in the garage over Q3/Q4 1999
>- but just a few tankfuls, and you'll probably not need it. Check out the
>websites of your automaker, rail company, commuter service, favourite
>airline, etc. Virtually all have something to say. Evaluate it, and be
>prepared to think about some changes for Q1 2000.
>
>4. Water Treatment and delivery: Under-rated risk, IMO. Get a few Hinckley
>and Shmidt water bottles in store. The problem here is that water quality
>problems may not be self-evident in time to avoid consumption. Availability
>outages can be accomodated by your H&S bottles. Check out your water utility
>website, or see the AWAA website.
>
>5. Food - lay in a little canned/dried/preserved stuff just in case. The
>most likely effect may be immediate unavailabililty of fresh produce,
>followed by reduced availability of processed foods in some areas for a
>short period.
>
>6. The Police will probably be prepared to act beyond  normal capacity, i.e.
>no leave, redundancy in case of e.g communications problems, liaison with
>local community, FEMA, etc.
>
>7. It is highly unlikely that our (largely vapid and consumerist, spritually
>empty, IMHO)  way of life will not continue. Allie McBeal (sp?), MTV, ABC,
>ESPN, etc., will continue to be the opiate of the masses ( are you out
>there, Oddmund?). Some companies have already 'failed' because of Y2K. More
>will. It is just the market at work. Assets from Y2K company closures may be
>available at  firesale prices. Negative goodwill may be prevalent because of
>the high costs of Y2K remediation. The overall economic impact beyond costs
>to fix will probably be measurable, but small.
>
>8. There will be unpredictable inconveniences. Reacting irresponsibly to the
>hype will only excacerbate the problem. Let's avoid a run on the banks - but
>do have hard copy, current statements for all records, not just financial,
>but medical, educational, employment, etc. Maybe have a little extra cash,
>bottled water, tinned food, wood for the fire/stove,
>batteries/candles/generator fuel on hand to deal with any spotty utility
>outages in your area Do not have unprotected sex with someone of the
>oppposite gender in late March/early April 1999 (think about it). Have
>elective surgery no later than end Q2/1999, & no earlier than Q2/2000 if at
>all possible. Avoid anything likely to increase your chances of ill-health
>in late 1999. Do not go into a cold, large, public space, any distance from
>home, in the middle of the night on Dec 31 1999 and get drunk. Expect to see
>some recalls/withdrawls of products from firms with a high degree of
>reliance on computer controlled, automated manufacturing processes in
>Q1/2000. Believe little of what you read in the adult comics we call
>newspapers (yes, even the NY Times). Sensationalism sells newspapers,
>rational facts may not. So-called Y2K experts can't be, we've never done
>this before! In this business, expert = pundit. Stay informed, surfing the
>web is a good place to start, esp. Peter de Yager's website.
>
>9. Sell me all your electronic goods, esp. R8's and M6's, for cents in the
>dollar, because none of them will work after 1/1/00 (but not early R4's, as
>I understand that they weren't use-compliant).  Become a trial attorney, and
>work for me. :=)
>
>
>My credentials to back what I write?
>
>Until last October I was Y2K Program Director at a large,global, healthcare
>manufacturer. I am currently leading research into some specific areas of
>Y2K for the many global clients of the advisory organization that I now work
>for. In addition I sit on the board of the leading Y2K Healthcare
>Non-for-Profit organization, and am also a member of the International Y2K
>Healthcare Experts Forum. (but see comments on 'expert' above)  I have
>shared Y2K speaking platforms with, amongst others, both John Koskinen, and
>Senator Bob Bennett.  Waaay back in 95/96 (bg), I was doing post-grad
>research on Y2K.
>
>All of the points above are mostly just relatively informed, highly
>opinionated speculation about what will happen in the US. Abroad? Well,
>that, as they say, is another story.
>
>
>I hope that this helps. Well, I'm off to don my Y2K compliant flame-proof
>suit, boots and helmet.
>
>Alistair
>
>
>
>---------------------- Forwarded by Alistair Stewart/NORWELL/GIGA on
>01/06/99 01:42 PM ---------------------------
>From:   leica @ leica on 01/06/99 01:19 PM
>To:     leica-users @ leica-users@mejac.palo-alto.ca.us@SMTP@GIGAEXCH
>cc:
>Subject:        [Leica] Re: Y2K  off- topic
>
>
>>> Dear Lug
>>>
>>>  .....I went away for a couple of days over Christmas and when I
>>>returned to my home I found it
>>> had been broken into and  ransacked, the phone lines cut and, horror of
>>>horrors, some of
>>> my Leica equipment stolen.
>
>You have my deepest sympathy for the intrusion you have experienced.  Your
>ordeal made me think of a somewhat related matter. As we begin 1999, we are
>facing a number of unknowns with regard to Y2K. Will the electricity come
>on when we flip the switch on January 1, 2000? Will we have a dial tone?
>Will the police be operating at full capacity? Will our way of life
>continue? So many questions, so little information. Things we depend upon
>for our modern way of life such as electrical generation and distribution,
>telecommunications, transportation systems, water treatment and delivery,
>and food distribution are all dependent upon millions and millions of
>computer-operated systems. If these systems fail, then our modern way of
>life grinds to a halt. Without being alarmist, I would like members of the
>list to comment on the possible scenarios and the myth surrounding this
>issue.
>
>Regards,
>Kirk Turk

Ted Grant
This is Our Work. The Legacy of Sir William Osler.
http://www.islandnet.com/~tedgrant