[Leica] Doom and gloom not, was Re: Y2K off- topic (long)

[Alistair Stewart <AStewart@gigaweb.com>]

Kirk,

To your specific points, here is my $0.02. The Leica content is towards the
end.

1. Electricity

The Electric Power Industry has scheduled a press conference on the Year
2000 State of
Readiness for the Electric Industry in North America on January 11, 1999,
1:30 PM at the National Press Club in Washington D.C. At this press
conference, North American Electric Reliability Council  (NERC) will present
to U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Bill Richardson the electric
industry's second report on its state of readiness for
the year 2000. John Koskinen, Chair of the President's Council on the Year
2000 Conversion will participate in the press conference.

NERC will be hosting the event and will be joined by its partners in the
process which includes the Edison Electric Institute, Nuclear Energy
Institute, American Public Power Association, National Rural Electric
Cooperative Association and others.

A copy of the first report, "Preparing the Electric Power Systems of North
America for the Transition to the Year 2000" which was presented to the
Department of Energy on September 17, 1998, is available from NERC
(www.NERC.COM)  & EEI (www.EEI.ORG) web sites along with other electric
industry year 2000 related information. The latest
(January 1999) Y2k report will be updated on the Web sites during the
afternoon
of January 11, 1999. 

It is anticipated that the event will be covered by C-SPAN.

2. Telcomms: Major carriers are individually giving credible Y2K messages.
Service outages may occur, but this is unlikely to be systemic. Dign up with
a large carrier if at all possible. Digital cellular is a good backup to
regular land lines or analogue cellular, but will not eliminate the
possibility of outages. Check out the website of your providor

3. Transportation: Too broad a category to say, but play it safe. Don't have
plans requiring travel. Put some spare petrol in the garage over Q3/Q4 1999
- - but just a few tankfuls, and you'll probably not need it. Check out the
websites of your automaker, rail company, commuter service, favourite
airline, etc. Virtually all have something to say. Evaluate it, and be
prepared to think about some changes for Q1 2000. 

4. Water Treatment and delivery: Under-rated risk, IMO. Get a few Hinckley
and Shmidt water bottles in store. The problem here is that water quality
problems may not be self-evident in time to avoid consumption. Availability
outages can be accomodated by your H&S bottles. Check out your water utility
website, or see the AWAA website. 

5. Food - lay in a little canned/dried/preserved stuff just in case. The
most likely effect may be immediate unavailabililty of fresh produce,
followed by reduced availability of processed foods in some areas for a
short period. 

6. The Police will probably be prepared to act beyond  normal capacity, i.e.
no leave, redundancy in case of e.g communications problems, liaison with
local community, FEMA, etc.

7. It is highly unlikely that our (largely vapid and consumerist, spritually
empty, IMHO)  way of life will not continue. Allie McBeal (sp?), MTV, ABC,
ESPN, etc., will continue to be the opiate of the masses ( are you out
there, Oddmund?). Some companies have already 'failed' because of Y2K. More
will. It is just the market at work. Assets from Y2K company closures may be
available at  firesale prices. Negative goodwill may be prevalent because of
the high costs of Y2K remediation. The overall economic impact beyond costs
to fix will probably be measurable, but small.

8. There will be unpredictable inconveniences. Reacting irresponsibly to the
hype will only excacerbate the problem. Let's avoid a run on the banks - but
do have hard copy, current statements for all records, not just financial,
but medical, educational, employment, etc. Maybe have a little extra cash,
bottled water, tinned food, wood for the fire/stove,
batteries/candles/generator fuel on hand to deal with any spotty utility
outages in your area Do not have unprotected sex with someone of the
oppposite gender in late March/early April 1999 (think about it). Have
elective surgery no later than end Q2/1999, & no earlier than Q2/2000 if at
all possible. Avoid anything likely to increase your chances of ill-health
in late 1999. Do not go into a cold, large, public space, any distance from
home, in the middle of the night on Dec 31 1999 and get drunk. Expect to see
some recalls/withdrawls of products from firms with a high degree of
reliance on computer controlled, automated manufacturing processes in
Q1/2000. Believe little of what you read in the adult comics we call
newspapers (yes, even the NY Times). Sensationalism sells newspapers,
rational facts may not. So-called Y2K experts can't be, we've never done
this before! In this business, expert = pundit. Stay informed, surfing the
web is a good place to start, esp. Peter de Yager's website.

9. Sell me all your electronic goods, esp. R8's and M6's, for cents in the
dollar, because none of them will work after 1/1/00 (but not early R4's, as
I understand that they weren't use-compliant).  Become a trial attorney, and
work for me. :=)


My credentials to back what I write?

Until last October I was Y2K Program Director at a large,global, healthcare
manufacturer. I am currently leading research into some specific areas of
Y2K for the many global clients of the advisory organization that I now work
for. In addition I sit on the board of the leading Y2K Healthcare
Non-for-Profit organization, and am also a member of the International Y2K
Healthcare Experts Forum. (but see comments on 'expert' above)  I have
shared Y2K speaking platforms with, amongst others, both John Koskinen, and
Senator Bob Bennett.  Waaay back in 95/96 (bg), I was doing post-grad
research on Y2K. 

All of the points above are mostly just relatively informed, highly
opinionated speculation about what will happen in the US. Abroad? Well,
that, as they say, is another story.


I hope that this helps. Well, I'm off to don my Y2K compliant flame-proof
suit, boots and helmet.

Alistair



- ---------------------- Forwarded by Alistair Stewart/NORWELL/GIGA on
01/06/99 01:42 PM ---------------------------
From:	leica @ leica on 01/06/99 01:19 PM
To:	leica-users @ leica-users@mejac.palo-alto.ca.us@SMTP@GIGAEXCH
cc:	 
Subject:	[Leica] Re: Y2K  off- topic


>> Dear Lug
>>
>>  .....I went away for a couple of days over Christmas and when I
>>returned to my home I found it
>> had been broken into and  ransacked, the phone lines cut and, horror of
>>horrors, some of
>> my Leica equipment stolen.

You have my deepest sympathy for the intrusion you have experienced.  Your
ordeal made me think of a somewhat related matter. As we begin 1999, we are
facing a number of unknowns with regard to Y2K. Will the electricity come
on when we flip the switch on January 1, 2000? Will we have a dial tone?
Will the police be operating at full capacity? Will our way of life
continue? So many questions, so little information. Things we depend upon
for our modern way of life such as electrical generation and distribution,
telecommunications, transportation systems, water treatment and delivery,
and food distribution are all dependent upon millions and millions of
computer-operated systems. If these systems fail, then our modern way of
life grinds to a halt. Without being alarmist, I would like members of the
list to comment on the possible scenarios and the myth surrounding this
issue.

Regards,
Kirk Turk