Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 1999/01/06

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Subject: [Leica] Please pardon my Y2K discourse.
From: Jim Brick <jimbrick@photoaccess.com>
Date: Wed, 06 Jan 1999 18:30:59 -0800

I have been designing computer systems for 34 years. Embedded controllers
for 22 years. I have been involved, as a consultant, with hundreds of
companies. There are millions and millions of programs,  embedded computer
boards, and associated paraphernalia, that NO ONE has the foggiest clue as
to, where they are, how they work, where they came from, who programmed
them, or anything else about them. The power grids, communications grids,
and transportation grids are run by this stuff. I know. I did lots of them.
Granted, not all of this stuff cares what year it is, but they do indeed
rely on signals from other systems that DO care what year it is. So even if
75% of the stuff doesn't care, it's fed by systems that do care, ergo, the
WHOLE system fails. Caring or not!

The financial industry runs mostly on live bootable computers, not embedded
processors. These computers, for the most part, will not have a Y2K
problem. BUT!!! they may not have power and they may not have any
communications. Your money probably won't be lost. Just not available.

Just how many imbedded processors do you think are living within the phone
system? Not the analog part, the real phone system. The digital network. We
are talking about millions of independent processor boards, buried in every
conceivable nook and cranny, dusty, dirty, and dank location imaginable.
Throughout the entire world. And most of these processors/processes know
what time it is and what day it is. And a huge percentage of them have been
forgotten about. But they won't forget us at 00:00 / 00. Ooooo, the
beginning of time! Must be the 'Big Bang." Zonk!!!

Just remember, most of the computers/processes/embedded controllers in the
world that DON'T care what day it is, usually get their instructions from
computers/processes/embedded controllers that DO care what day it is. So
you cannot say, in any way, that there are thousands of computers out there
that don't care. Their boss cares, and that means, ultimately, they care.

This is a very very complex situation and brushing it off lightly is really
really short sighted. It's like a house built of cards. Move one card and
the whole house collapses.

No one can predict the consequences of going from 1999 to 2000. There
indeed will be failures. Just how severe and how wide spread are facts that
we will collect during the year 2000. There will be outages, bottlenecks,
and inconveniences. In the USA alone, the Y2K problem is a multi Billion
dollar problem. Anyone who says there won't be failures, is simply
uninformed. Anyone who attempts to predict exactly what the failures will
be is nuts. Anyone who isn't prepared, is foolish.

So, be "penny wise and pound (£) foolish" if you wish...

But it's much simpler to be ready. What have you got to lose by being
ready? Nothing. The stuff you need to get ready is the normal stuff you use
anyway. Just more of it. Plus a few precautions. Nothing is wasted.
Disaster or not. What have you got to lose if you are not ready? Well...
try it, and then tell me. My snail mail address is:

Jim Brick
820 Sweetbay Dr.
Sunnyvale CA, 94086

Jim

PS... I truly hope that there is enough redundancy being built into the
world grids, that re-routing through newer networks (power and
communications) is a possibility. But please understand that the technology
that we have in place today, is running at or near CAPACITY. When any
single component goes out, someone, somewhere, is inconvenienced. So what
happens when more than one component fails in more than one discipline?
That thought alone, should cause you to stop and think.

Over and Out

Jim