Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 1998/06/21

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Subject: RE: [Leica] Is the Leica an endangered species?
From: Jim Laurel <jplaurel@microsoft.com>
Date: Sun, 21 Jun 1998 19:52:44 -0700

Erwin, you bring up interesting points and I for was glad to see some email
that didn't have to do with net porn, lawsuits, blackmail, etc.

It's important to put Fuji's comments in context.  Did they mean that they
expect to stop producing 135-format film in 4 years?  I seriously doubt it.
Leica as an endagered species?  Maybe.  Anyway, here are some random
thoughts both pro and con.

1) Remember that there is still a huge installed base of 35mm cameras out
there that isn't going away anytime soon.  The public's investments
investments in 35mm equipment is safe for the forseeable future.  There's
just too big a business out there for Kodak, Fuji, et al to ignore.

2) By the time digital has sufficient quality to replace 35mm, one would
assume that the technology will have advanced to the point where it actually
provides superior resolution, contrast, color rendition, etc., to film.
When this happens, the need for superior optics will be even greater.  From
a business perspective, the simplest thing for manufacturers to do will be
to adapt their existing systems to shoot some digital media, in much the
same way as Nikon and Canon are already doing in partnership with Kodak.  I
can easily imagine Leica replacing the little swing-out door (that hold the
pressure plate) with something that has a CCD panel on it to record the
image.  Imagine the size of the market for devices along the lines of the
expected "IMAGEK" device that looks like a roll of film to the camera.

3) Right now, the digital world is in transition.  Today, we're basically
talking about image sensors -- devices that take an image assembled by some
optical system and record it with a CCD sensor.  During this transition, our
investments in 35mm are safe because, as I say above, manufacturers will
find retrofitting existing camera systems the most expedient course to the
largest market.

4) In the case of the Leica M, it will probably have to be Leica itself
which provides the digital interface since the installed base of this camera
is so comparatively small.  Companies like Irvine sensors entering the
digital back market take the Canon EOS, Nikon, Minolta cameras into account
long before Leica R or M, just like aftermarket lens manufacturers do now
with thier lenses.  If I were doing product planning at Irvine sensors, I
would spend no time even thinking about compatibility with Leica in general
if there was any significant engineering effort involved.  So long as I hit
Canon, Nikon, Minolta, I'd be happy.

5) The real danger (and death knell) for 135 and Leica will come when the
optical system is no longer a part of the equation.  At some point, I'm
convinved that we will have some kind of real-world 3d scanning technology
that will scan a scene, providing the ability to render it from any angle or
recreate it in all it's dimensions at a later time.  This is a long, long
way off, but when this happens, all of today's cameras will be useless
except, maybe, for use by artists.

6) So, the REAL reasons for the current crop of Leicas being endangered is
too far off for any of us to worry about it.  However, I'm concerned about
the general lack of interest in really high quality that I see in young
people.  I often carry around a Canon Optura and use it once in a while
where I work at Microsoft.  People just ga-ga over that silly thing.  I tell
them that the quality is generally mediocre, but they don't care.  What
counts and what's "cool" is the fact that it's "digital" and you can get
results into your computer immediately.  When I'm shooting with the Optura
and the Leicas at the same time, young people generally are very, very
turned on by the Optura and don't give the Leicas a second look.  Image
quality doesn't seem to mean much to them.  Instant gratification does.
Most of my colleagues are asking about digital, not film cameras.


- --Jim Laurel