Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 2006/08/15
[Author Prev] [Author Next] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Author Index] [Topic Index] [Home] [Search]On Aug 15, 2006, at 8:23 AM, lDon wrote: > Larry, > No, it is not brain surgery but you have to have some knowledge and > choose > opportune moments to change formats. For example, the Blue-Ray format > appears to be winning the new DVD wars so in a year or so I will buy a > burner and reburn all my CD's and DVD's to that format. I suspect > that CD's > only have a couple of years life left before you start to see non > backward > compatible DVD/Blue Ray reader burners on computers. As the music > industry > goes completely online rather than CD there will be the same > pressure to > have a CD drive as there is currently to have a floppy drive on new > computers. > > Therefore, all those CD's that John Q has had burned at the drug > store will > be mostly useless coasters in ten years. The sad part is that John > Q has > faithfully stored copies in the safety deposit box and they will be > safe, > but mostly useless in twenty years. > > My question to the computer literate would be what is going to > replace USB > or 1394 connections? Will Wi-Fi take over so no cables at all? > > Don Don, I know the pain of converting one file format to another. In the 60s I faced the problem of converting the whole data base of U.S Merchant seaman's accident and injury records from IBM cards to computer readable tape. The 1.5 million 80 column cards were delivered to me in a moving van. I had the task of feeding the cards in small batches to a card reader where they would get transfered to my university's mainframe and written to tape. The only available machine time was after midnight on Jewish holidays. In a few years the 8 track tape was unreadable, so the data was rewritten to 8" floppy discs. Eventually it was transfered to 5" discs and then 3.5" discs. A roomful of them. Fortunately we missed the 2" disc period. (Yes, there were 2" floppy discs.) Finally when CD burners became available, the data was written on those lovely little platters and now occupy only a 5' long shelf. Why did we keep this data so many years? They offered the entire medical history of 180,000 seamen, working in a controlled environment, for their whole career. It was (and still is) invaluable for researchers. The interesting thing is that each format had a half life of about 10 years. If you wrote a file on a specific medium when it first became widely available, twenty years later you would be hard pressed to find a reader for that medium. The first Mac, introduced in 1984 (Remember the hammer swinging commercial?) marked the general adoption of the 3.5" disc. By 2004 it was hard to find a new computer which would accept such discs. Burnable CDs are about halfway through their life span. DVDs probably have 15 years to go. Blue-Ray may be the successor but I still have a Sony BetaMax in the garage. You can't be sure until it sells for less than $100 at WalMart. Vertical writing on magnetic media, holographic recording in solid plastic, etc. are still in the laboratory but you can't be sure which one will break free in the near future. Perhaps writing on tea leaves. The cable connection problem is minor compared with the recording medium wars. RS 232 connectors are still being used 50 years after they were first introduced. The dual pronged electrical wall plug is over 100 years old. The Brits use the same bayonet socket they did when Swan invented the light bulb. USB and Firewire connections will probably still be around but they may carry different information at different speeds. Wi-Fi is already showing signs of age and the IR connection that was heralded as the future of wireless inter connection has already disappeared. So keep your precious image fiiles in CD or DVD format for at least the next ten years. You will have plenty of time to save the files on any new format that emerges. Thankfully digital files can be transfered without too much loss of data. Besides, if faced with data medium obsolescence, John Q can have his drugstore CDs transfered to new image storage media by any number of commercial firms if he is willing to pay the price. You can still get it done with 8 track computer tapes and big floppy discs. I've even had my 8 mm movies converted to DVDs. Larry Z