[Leica] 90 minutes in support of Democracy

[tim at KairosPhoto.com (Tim Atherton)]

> I was impressed by the number of young people voting.  Many with
> piercings
> ( I have nothing against piercings ) - which is not a site that
> I'm used to
> seeing.  From my very unscientific vantage point I think we are likely to
> see whole segments of the population voting for the first time.
>
> ernie

My prediction (FWIW) is that Kerry will win by a bigger margin than any of
the polls predict, in part because of the youth vote coming out and voting
in greater numbers than before (and especially the black youth vote). The
polls have generally been missing them (one simple example - many under 30's
have been missed in phone polls because a growing percentage only use
cell-phones and not landlines. he one major cell phone poll showed those
under 30 something like 55% Kerry 40% Bush - that's just one example). They
have also been mobilized more than ever before in recent elections. Same
goes for a number of minorities who may well vote in larger numbers than
last election.

The youth generally don't like Bush, especially those who have bothered to
register. For many black youth, it is their friends, brothers and cousins
who are fighting and dying in Iraq. Again, just one example.

If it does come out this way it says something about the polling system (as
well as the media's reliance on polls). We'll see.

But then again, maybe I'll be crying into my porridge on Wednesday
morning....


tim