[Leica] Anyone else notice?

["smhickel" <smhickel@iserv.net>]

I was considering at one point recently checking out prices on used Leica
stuff. It was something I hadn't been paying attention to. What I noticed
was the amount of dollars (US) that Leica gear has dropped from its new
value and from its previous values a few short years ago.

So, I started asking myself, why?

My conclusion was at first because Leica had come out with so many models
lately, whereas before years had gone by whereas there were no or minor
changes. I also noted that Besser, the G2, and Hassleblad, and others have
come out with competing Rangefinder cameras. I also thought about digital
competition.

But all of this doesn't account for at least not in a major way for the
leica lenses also having dropped from what I remember them costing.

My conclusion therefore factors in the above, but most, I believe, it is the
weak Euro and strong dollar policy of the US Treasury and our phenomenal
monthly $30B trade deficit. This makes oversea goods cheaper in US dollars
and more expensive in other currencies.

I have also noted that this strong dollar policy is one that can not last or
else overseas' folks will start divesting themselves of excess dollars and
selling US bonds, etc. This would have the effect of dramatically weakening
the US dollar. With the new administration, I believe, that although they
are paying lip service to this strong dollar policy, I believe we are about
to see some significant pressure on the dollar and on the price of gold,
which would have that same effect on the dollar.

Back to Leica. That tells me that we are not seeing a long-term trend in
Leica prices, but rather a unique buying opportunity to get a Leica
collection and record historical lows. And I believe that this will NOT last
more than the next few months to six months. Why? Because the dollar is
about to turn heels. It has to, especially, if Mr. Greenspan, decides to
further lower interest rate in face of oncoming inflation.

And finally, inflation. Inflation is rearing its ugly head again. I believe
that us Leica bugs will also benefit from our collections going up in value
as inflation gets worse with a falling dollar.

That is my .02cents anyway, as to why Leica gear in our collections seems to
be constantly losing value. But the end seems to be in site and may actually
turn around but keep in mind that that means now is the time to get your
used and new Leica gear at historically low values.

Steve Hickel