Re: [Leica] Motor Drive R8

[dmorton@journalist.co.uk (David Morton)]

Pascal wrote:

> yes, David, I take your point, but:
> 
> what is the future of Leica R then?
> 
> an AF body with new lenses (AF incorporated in the lenses unlike the AX)
> 
> continuing with a manual R series (but then they should say ALOUD that 
> they are never venturing into AF)
> 
> dropping the R line altogether?

Now if I knew the answer to *that* question, I'd have someone from my 
consulting business banging on the door at Solms with a proposal. :-)

As I mentioned before, on the factory tour at Solms recently, we were 
shown a cut away R lens. Much was made of the precision brass/aluminium 
helicoid focussing, and it was said (I have a note of the man's name 
somewhere, but the notebook I used at Solms seems to have gone for a walk) 
that "it is *essential* to have this precision mechanism in order to 
achieve the optical quality of Leica lenses" and "you cannot have this 
mechanism with autofocus lenses".

Now *either* this was smoke and mirrors, and LC will pull a range of AF 
lenses out of the hat at some time in the near future (of which more 
later), or it was genuine.

If it was genuine, it leaves Leica Camera with two simple choices:

- - Continue to make only manual focus SLRs, selling into an ever dwindling 
niche market. Yes I *know* that there are plenty on this list who eschew 
manual focus, but that's not the state of the market generally. Out of the 
big manufacturers, there are only a few manual focus pro SLRs, and none 
are selling in numbers that would support further product development. 
Nikon, for example, is not developing any new lenses for its ageing 
offerings (the FM2n and the F3HP), and there are plenty of stories about 
the production runs of the F3 bodies getting less and less frequent.

In reality, your last two choices are actually one and the same. 
Continuing with manual focus, and saying it will never go AF, is pretty 
much a death knell for the R series. Whatever one's opinion of manual 
focus vs AF, the market wants AF, and we can see from Leica's inventory 
just *how much* the market wants an expensive manual focus only SLR.

- - Make an AF SLR with a Contax AX style focussing system. Now this might 
have seemed like an excellent idea when the AX was launched, but must look 
like a recipe for disaster now. Leaving aside the huge commercial failure 
of the AX, look at the size and weight of the AX, look at the size and 
weight of the contemporary Contax manual focus SLR bodies, now imagine an 
R9 that was proportionally larger to contain the AF.

ie R9 = R8 * (AX/ST). Now OK, maybe with the passing of time a body 
focussing Leica R9 could be a bit smaller than the AX, but I can't see it 
being *smaller* than the R8+motor, and that's already on the large side 
(compare it to an F100 or EOS1n). Also I *really* can't see Leica having 
the resources to do this.

One could argue that the R8 motor drive saga already shows that Leica bit 
off more than it could chew when it decided to take the development and 
production of the new R body completely in house.

It may well be that the departure of Leica's CEO, and his replacement, was 
as much to do with this, as it was to pacify the shareholders. As I 
understand it (and I may have got this wrong), it was the previous 
management who decided to 'go it alone'.

If it is thought within Leica that the best course for the R line is to 
*return* to a collaborative arrangement with Minolta (or someone else) 
then losing the manager(s) who made the decision to walk away (or who at 
least supported that decision) and bringing in a new CEO without that 
'baggage', would make volte face in the near future rather easier to 
present to the customers and shareholders.

But that course would mean Leica lenses with USM in them, and hence the 
demise of the much vaunted helicoil. Now if you were planning that, would 
you make *such* a big thing about it to your Leica Akademie attendees as 
they toured the factory? If it's commercial smoke and mirrors, then it's a 
very risky poker game.

My bet? An R9 based on the top of the line Minolta AF body, and AF Leica 
lenses with ultrasonic motors. Would I put a lot of money on that bet? 
Ummmmmm....