Archived posting to the Leica Users Group, 1997/09/06
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Stephen, you're right on.
The best view on statistics that I've heard goes something like
this...
Politicians use statistics in the same way that Drunks use
lamp-posts...for support rather than illumination. (I don't know which
way Di's dead driver used lamp-posts, however).
Either way, for $2000 (with rebate effect) cost, the (name your M
problem here, eg frame counter) design, materials, and production
methods that have been used for 40 years shouldn't be producing ANY
problems today. The debates over Confidence Intervals and all this
other Quantitative Methods stuff is, IMHO, irrelevant (and not
interesting either).
When Sonke (for German language sticklers, I can't produce the umlaut
over the 'o' in his name, some people use an 'h' to substitute)
replies to me with details of when plastic was substituted, for what
serial #'s, for what components, & other design changes, etc, I'll
post it to the group. I believe it to be around 179xxxx.
Alistair
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Subject: Surveys
Author: Stephen Kobrin <kobrins@wharton.upenn.edu> at Internet
Date: 9/6/97 12:24 PM
While I am not a statistician, I use statistics frequently. All of the
comments about sampling, confidence intervals and the like are certainly
relevant, but not the whole story. There is a big difference between being
able to say precisely that 26.5% of all M6s have some sort of defect and
that something does not smell quite right in the state of Denmark. I
certainly would like an M6, but spending the $1900 or so a new one would
cost would be a big step for me. While perfect quality control exists only
in one's imagination, defects should be very few and far between in Leica
production. A defect rate of 10% or even 5% is much too high for Leica,
given the cost of the camera. Furthermore, they have been doing this for a
while; the data are not for the first few models of a new run. If you pull
a few marbles out of a big jar that is supposed to contain only white
marbles and the three of the first six are red, you certainly cannot say
with any certainty that 50% of the marbles in the jar are red. You do
know, however, that there are red marbles where none should be.
Moral; don't throw the baby out with the bath water. There is a reasonable
chance that there are problems with recent production that exceed what we
have a right to expect as "normal" under the circumstances.
Steve
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Date: Sat, 06 Sep 1997 12:24:02 -0400
To: leica-users@mejac.palo-alto.ca.us
From: Stephen Kobrin <kobrins@wharton.upenn.edu>
Subject: Surveys
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