Re: film not dead in 20 years....

[pgs@thillana.lcs.mit.edu (Patrick Sobalvarro)]

Let me clarify that I did not say that film would be dead in 20 years
- -- someone else came up with the subject line above.  I said it would
be considerably more expensive in 20 years, because demand would
decrease drastically and thus the economies of scale that exist today
would disappear.  The arguments I hear from other parties say:

1. CCD's don't have the resolution of film yet.

  This doesn't matter.  They already have sufficient resolution to
  satisfy Joe and Jane Snapshooter, and Joe and Jane are the market
  base.  If Joe and Jane go digital, your film and its processing are
  going to become specialty items.  Furthermore, on current trends in
  20 years CCD's will have much better resolution than film.

2. People in third-world countries won't be able to afford the initial
   investment to buy a CCD camera.

  This may be true, although I doubt it.  There are plenty of personal
  stereos (Walkman-type devices) in evidence in third-world countries,
  and a CCD camera won't cost more than one of those in 20 years.  It
  might even be more like a calculator.

3. Weird films like 828 are still available.

  Weird films like 828 are made out of the same stuff as 35mm film.

4. Scanners exist, so film will continue to be practical.

  I love my Sprintscan 35 Plus, but for the case where digital is
  sufficient, where I only want to print or store digital images, it
  is really an expensive pain in the butt to mess around with film and
  go to a lab and so on.  For that stuff, I'd rather have a digital
  back in my camera that provided the 2.7Kx4K resolution I get from
  the scanner.  I still love Kodachrome projected on a screen or on a
  light box under a loupe, and I like it much better than images on a
  computer screen.  But if I only want digital images, then the film
  and processing is a pain in the butt, and it costs a lot, too.

  Joe and Jane Snapshooter feel the same way, except they don't care
  about Kodachrome.

Tell you what -- if you don't believe me, I'll make a deal with any of
you who figure you'll still be on this list in 20 years.  20 years
from today, I will trade you a brand-new digital camera capable of
making images of at least 1 million pixels, for two 36-exposure rolls
of ISO 100 black and white negative silver halide film, with
developing and printing on 4x6 or larger silver-gelatin paper prints.
We enter into the agreement now, and we agree to trade in 2017.  Note
that if we traded today, the digital camera would cost at least $750
and the film and processing about $35.

Any takers?

- -Patrick